Divergent short-range forecast models drive the split trader consensus on New York City's highest temperature on April 8, assigning 50% implied probabilities to both 37°F or below and 56°F or higher, while mid-range bins like 46-47°F hover around 36%. National Weather Service ensembles from GFS and ECMWF reveal bimodal spreads, with one cluster projecting a deepening upper trough over the Northeast advecting cold Canadian air masses for sub-freezing potential, versus opposing runs favoring ridging and warm southerly flow amid transitional early April patterns. This uncertainty stems from jet stream waviness and frontal timing sensitivity, against a historical April 8 average high of 59°F (extremes 25°F-90°F). Key differentiator: trough amplitude; monitor NOAA's 12Z model updates and NWS forecast discussions today for convergence ahead of resolution at Central Park.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in NYC on April 8?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 8?
50-51°F 29%
56°F or higher 26%
52-53°F 18%
54-55°F 18%
最新
最新
2026-04-08
37°F or below
2%
38-39°F
2%
40-41°F
2%
42-43°F
2%
44-45°F
3%
46-47°F
3%
48-49°F
4%
50-51°F
29%
52-53°F
18%
54-55°F
18%
56°F or higher
26%
50-51°F 29%
56°F or higher 26%
52-53°F 18%
54-55°F 18%
最新
最新
2026-04-08
37°F or below
$0 交易量
2%
38-39°F
$0 交易量
2%
40-41°F
$0 交易量
2%
42-43°F
$0 交易量
2%
44-45°F
$0 交易量
3%
46-47°F
$0 交易量
3%
48-49°F
$0 交易量
4%
50-51°F
$0 交易量
29%
52-53°F
$0 交易量
18%
54-55°F
$0 交易量
18%
56°F or higher
$5 交易量
26%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Divergent short-range forecast models drive the split trader consensus on New York City's highest temperature on April 8, assigning 50% implied probabilities to both 37°F or below and 56°F or higher, while mid-range bins like 46-47°F hover around 36%. National Weather Service ensembles from GFS and ECMWF reveal bimodal spreads, with one cluster projecting a deepening upper trough over the Northeast advecting cold Canadian air masses for sub-freezing potential, versus opposing runs favoring ridging and warm southerly flow amid transitional early April patterns. This uncertainty stems from jet stream waviness and frontal timing sensitivity, against a historical April 8 average high of 59°F (extremes 25°F-90°F). Key differentiator: trough amplitude; monitor NOAA's 12Z model updates and NWS forecast discussions today for convergence ahead of resolution at Central Park.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
交易量
$5结束日期
2026-04-08市场开放时间
Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Divergent short-range forecast models drive the split trader consensus on New York City's highest temperature on April 8, assigning 50% implied probabilities to both 37°F or below and 56°F or higher, while mid-range bins like 46-47°F hover around 36%. National Weather Service ensembles from GFS and ECMWF reveal bimodal spreads, with one cluster projecting a deepening upper trough over the Northeast advecting cold Canadian air masses for sub-freezing potential, versus opposing runs favoring ridging and warm southerly flow amid transitional early April patterns. This uncertainty stems from jet stream waviness and frontal timing sensitivity, against a historical April 8 average high of 59°F (extremes 25°F-90°F). Key differentiator: trough amplitude; monitor NOAA's 12Z model updates and NWS forecast discussions today for convergence ahead of resolution at Central Park.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$5结束日期
2026-04-08市场开放时间
Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ETDivergent short-range forecast models drive the split trader consensus on New York City's highest temperature on April 8, assigning 50% implied probabilities to both 37°F or below and 56°F or higher, while mid-range bins like 46-47°F hover around 36%. National Weather Service ensembles from GFS and ECMWF reveal bimodal spreads, with one cluster projecting a deepening upper trough over the Northeast advecting cold Canadian air masses for sub-freezing potential, versus opposing runs favoring ridging and warm southerly flow amid transitional early April patterns. This uncertainty stems from jet stream waviness and frontal timing sensitivity, against a historical April 8 average high of 59°F (extremes 25°F-90°F). Key differentiator: trough amplitude; monitor NOAA's 12Z model updates and NWS forecast discussions today for convergence ahead of resolution at Central Park.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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