Latest National Weather Service forecasts and model ensembles indicate a high-pressure ridge persisting over California into April 5, projecting San Francisco highs in the mid-to-upper 70s°F at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the market's resolution source via Wunderground data. This trader consensus, with 45% implied probability for 78°F or higher and 26.5% for 76-77°F, stems from March 2026's record-breaking heat wave—San Francisco's hottest March on record, peaking at 90°F—the first such March extreme, driven by prolonged subsidence and offshore flows that suppressed the typical marine layer. Sunny conditions and north winds 9-18 mph support solar heating and downslope warming, though uncertainty remains from model divergences and potential coastal stratus redevelopment; new NOAA GFS/ECMWF runs expected overnight could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 5?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 5?
78°F or higher 56%
76-77°F 28%
74-75°F 14%
72-73°F 6%
最新
最新
2026-04-05
59°F or below
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
3%
72-73°F
6%
74-75°F
15%
76-77°F
28%
78°F or higher
51%
78°F or higher 56%
76-77°F 28%
74-75°F 14%
72-73°F 6%
最新
最新
2026-04-05
59°F or below
$560 交易量
<1%
60-61°F
$335 交易量
<1%
62-63°F
$370 交易量
<1%
64-65°F
$410 交易量
1%
66-67°F
$1,087 交易量
<1%
68-69°F
$991 交易量
3%
70-71°F
$164 交易量
3%
72-73°F
$154 交易量
6%
74-75°F
$147 交易量
15%
76-77°F
$157 交易量
28%
78°F or higher
$432 交易量
51%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service forecasts and model ensembles indicate a high-pressure ridge persisting over California into April 5, projecting San Francisco highs in the mid-to-upper 70s°F at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the market's resolution source via Wunderground data. This trader consensus, with 45% implied probability for 78°F or higher and 26.5% for 76-77°F, stems from March 2026's record-breaking heat wave—San Francisco's hottest March on record, peaking at 90°F—the first such March extreme, driven by prolonged subsidence and offshore flows that suppressed the typical marine layer. Sunny conditions and north winds 9-18 mph support solar heating and downslope warming, though uncertainty remains from model divergences and potential coastal stratus redevelopment; new NOAA GFS/ECMWF runs expected overnight could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 1, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
交易量
$4,708结束日期
2026-04-05市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 6:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service forecasts and model ensembles indicate a high-pressure ridge persisting over California into April 5, projecting San Francisco highs in the mid-to-upper 70s°F at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the market's resolution source via Wunderground data. This trader consensus, with 45% implied probability for 78°F or higher and 26.5% for 76-77°F, stems from March 2026's record-breaking heat wave—San Francisco's hottest March on record, peaking at 90°F—the first such March extreme, driven by prolonged subsidence and offshore flows that suppressed the typical marine layer. Sunny conditions and north winds 9-18 mph support solar heating and downslope warming, though uncertainty remains from model divergences and potential coastal stratus redevelopment; new NOAA GFS/ECMWF runs expected overnight could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$4,708结束日期
2026-04-05市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 6:30 AM ETLatest National Weather Service forecasts and model ensembles indicate a high-pressure ridge persisting over California into April 5, projecting San Francisco highs in the mid-to-upper 70s°F at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the market's resolution source via Wunderground data. This trader consensus, with 45% implied probability for 78°F or higher and 26.5% for 76-77°F, stems from March 2026's record-breaking heat wave—San Francisco's hottest March on record, peaking at 90°F—the first such March extreme, driven by prolonged subsidence and offshore flows that suppressed the typical marine layer. Sunny conditions and north winds 9-18 mph support solar heating and downslope warming, though uncertainty remains from model divergences and potential coastal stratus redevelopment; new NOAA GFS/ECMWF runs expected overnight could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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