Recent forecast model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles points to an overnight low near 22°C in Shanghai on June 25, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 20–23°C. Key differentiating factors include variable cloud cover during the mei-yu transition period, which modulates nocturnal radiative cooling, alongside expected light winds and high humidity that limit temperature drops below 20°C or allow brief dips toward 19°C under clearer skies. Typical late-June climatology shows average lows near 21–23°C, with model spread arising from uncertainty in frontal passage timing and urban heat island effects. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range as local observations refine boundary-layer conditions.