Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns virtually 100% implied probability to a 13°C lowest temperature in Tokyo on April 25, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast issued at 17:00 JST, which aligns with partly cloudy conditions limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Current observations and hourly data show overnight lows stabilizing near historical late-April norms of 12.2°C, with April 2026 running slightly above average amid mild spring high-pressure influences. AccuWeather models corroborate with lows around 14°C, reinforcing market positioning. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing skies overnight enabling sharper cooling to 12°C or below, though low cloud cover and urban heat island effects in Tokyo make this improbable; final JMA observation at day's end will resolve.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Lowest temperature in Tokyo on April 25?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on April 25?
13°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$26,930 交易量
$26,930 交易量
2026-04-25
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
Yes
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
13°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$26,930 交易量
$26,930 交易量
2026-04-25
8°C or below
$4,304 交易量
No
9°C
$1,124 交易量
No
10°C
$2,345 交易量
No
11°C
$2,050 交易量
No
12°C
$5,073 交易量
No
13°C
$4,065 交易量
Yes
14°C
$279 交易量
No
15°C
$835 交易量
No
16°C
$1,249 交易量
No
17°C
$1,045 交易量
No
18°C or higher
$4,562 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns virtually 100% implied probability to a 13°C lowest temperature in Tokyo on April 25, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast issued at 17:00 JST, which aligns with partly cloudy conditions limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Current observations and hourly data show overnight lows stabilizing near historical late-April norms of 12.2°C, with April 2026 running slightly above average amid mild spring high-pressure influences. AccuWeather models corroborate with lows around 14°C, reinforcing market positioning. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing skies overnight enabling sharper cooling to 12°C or below, though low cloud cover and urban heat island effects in Tokyo make this improbable; final JMA observation at day's end will resolve.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 23, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$26,930结束日期
2026-04-25市场开放时间
Apr 23, 2026, 12:02 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns virtually 100% implied probability to a 13°C lowest temperature in Tokyo on April 25, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast issued at 17:00 JST, which aligns with partly cloudy conditions limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Current observations and hourly data show overnight lows stabilizing near historical late-April norms of 12.2°C, with April 2026 running slightly above average amid mild spring high-pressure influences. AccuWeather models corroborate with lows around 14°C, reinforcing market positioning. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing skies overnight enabling sharper cooling to 12°C or below, though low cloud cover and urban heat island effects in Tokyo make this improbable; final JMA observation at day's end will resolve.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$26,930结束日期
2026-04-25市场开放时间
Apr 23, 2026, 12:02 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns virtually 100% implied probability to a 13°C lowest temperature in Tokyo on April 25, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast issued at 17:00 JST, which aligns with partly cloudy conditions limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Current observations and hourly data show overnight lows stabilizing near historical late-April norms of 12.2°C, with April 2026 running slightly above average amid mild spring high-pressure influences. AccuWeather models corroborate with lows around 14°C, reinforcing market positioning. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing skies overnight enabling sharper cooling to 12°C or below, though low cloud cover and urban heat island effects in Tokyo make this improbable; final JMA observation at day's end will resolve.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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