The high implied probability on “No” reflects the current fiscal trajectory under the Trump administration, where FY 2026 deficits are on pace for roughly $2 trillion (near 6% of GDP) according to Congressional Budget Office updates, exceeding prior-year levels after accounting for timing shifts. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act added several trillion dollars to projected debt over the decade through tax and spending provisions, only partially offset by tariff revenues that have fallen short of earlier estimates following court rulings. Proposed 2027 discretionary cuts and defense increases have not yet altered baseline outlooks, while mandatory spending on entitlements and rising net interest remain largely untouched. Treasury Secretary statements on targeting a 3% deficit by the end of the term contrast with independent projections showing continued growth through 2029, leaving little scope for a net reduction before 2027 absent major new legislative action.