Official hourly observations from Moscow's primary weather stations, managed by the Russian Hydrometeorological Center, recorded a peak temperature of 5°C this afternoon amid persistent cloud cover and cool northerly airflow, driving trader consensus to 100% on this outcome as implied by Polymarket odds. Supporting evidence includes aligned short-range forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, which project no further warming before sunset due to low solar insolation and stable atmospheric conditions under a blocking high-pressure ridge over European Russia. While inherent forecast uncertainty exists, a realistic challenge would require sudden clearing skies and stronger daytime heating in the final daylight hours—unlikely given current synoptic patterns—to nudge the high toward 6°C or above; watch for evening updates from local monitoring agencies.