Incumbent Republican Jim Jordan faces Democrat Joshua Kolasinski and independent Tracey Tackett in Ohio's 4th district on November 3, 2026. The seat's solid Republican lean, reflected in a Cook Political Report Solid R rating and R+21 partisan voting index, stems from consistent strong performance in statewide races and Jordan's 68.5% victory in 2024. Jordan ran unopposed in the May primary, while Kolasinski advanced as the Democratic nominee. Trader consensus assigns Republicans a 93.5% implied probability because structural factors like district composition and incumbency advantages have historically produced large margins. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting Jordan, or an exceptionally strong Democratic national environment capable of overcoming the district's baseline tilt.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones de la Cámara OH-04
Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara OH-04
$14,804 Vol.
$14,804 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
94%
Partido Demócrata
6%
$14,804 Vol.
$14,804 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$5,652 Vol.
94%
Partido Demócrata
$9,152 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jim Jordan faces Democrat Joshua Kolasinski and independent Tracey Tackett in Ohio's 4th district on November 3, 2026. The seat's solid Republican lean, reflected in a Cook Political Report Solid R rating and R+21 partisan voting index, stems from consistent strong performance in statewide races and Jordan's 68.5% victory in 2024. Jordan ran unopposed in the May primary, while Kolasinski advanced as the Democratic nominee. Trader consensus assigns Republicans a 93.5% implied probability because structural factors like district composition and incumbency advantages have historically produced large margins. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting Jordan, or an exceptionally strong Democratic national environment capable of overcoming the district's baseline tilt.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$14,804Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jim Jordan faces Democrat Joshua Kolasinski and independent Tracey Tackett in Ohio's 4th district on November 3, 2026. The seat's solid Republican lean, reflected in a Cook Political Report Solid R rating and R+21 partisan voting index, stems from consistent strong performance in statewide races and Jordan's 68.5% victory in 2024. Jordan ran unopposed in the May primary, while Kolasinski advanced as the Democratic nominee. Trader consensus assigns Republicans a 93.5% implied probability because structural factors like district composition and incumbency advantages have historically produced large margins. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting Jordan, or an exceptionally strong Democratic national environment capable of overcoming the district's baseline tilt.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$14,804Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jim Jordan faces Democrat Joshua Kolasinski and independent Tracey Tackett in Ohio's 4th district on November 3, 2026. The seat's solid Republican lean, reflected in a Cook Political Report Solid R rating and R+21 partisan voting index, stems from consistent strong performance in statewide races and Jordan's 68.5% victory in 2024. Jordan ran unopposed in the May primary, while Kolasinski advanced as the Democratic nominee. Trader consensus assigns Republicans a 93.5% implied probability because structural factors like district composition and incumbency advantages have historically produced large margins. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting Jordan, or an exceptionally strong Democratic national environment capable of overcoming the district's baseline tilt.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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