Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95.3% implied probability for the Bank of England to hold its Bank Rate at 3.75% at the April 30, 2026, Monetary Policy Committee meeting, reflecting sticky UK CPI inflation at 3.0% in February amid Middle East conflict-driven energy price surges that have stalled disinflation toward the 2% target. The MPC unanimously maintained rates in March, citing persistent price pressures evidenced by firms' sharp rise in inflation expectations per the latest survey, while labor market resilience tempers cut risks. This strong hold positioning could face challenges from softer-than-expected March CPI data due April 22 or escalating economic slowdown signals, potentially prompting a 25 basis point cut despite low 0.1% odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBank of England decision in April?
Bank of England decision in April?
No change 95.6%
Increase 4.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$455,250 Vol.
$455,250 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
96%
Increase
4%
No change 95.6%
Increase 4.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$455,250 Vol.
$455,250 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
96%
Increase
4%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's April 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 5:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's April 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95.3% implied probability for the Bank of England to hold its Bank Rate at 3.75% at the April 30, 2026, Monetary Policy Committee meeting, reflecting sticky UK CPI inflation at 3.0% in February amid Middle East conflict-driven energy price surges that have stalled disinflation toward the 2% target. The MPC unanimously maintained rates in March, citing persistent price pressures evidenced by firms' sharp rise in inflation expectations per the latest survey, while labor market resilience tempers cut risks. This strong hold positioning could face challenges from softer-than-expected March CPI data due April 22 or escalating economic slowdown signals, potentially prompting a 25 basis point cut despite low 0.1% odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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