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Elections·US Election

California Governor Election Winner

Market icon
Elections·US Election

California Governor Election Winner

Tom Steyer 68.5%

Matt Mahan 9%

Katie Porter 8.2%

Steve Hilton 5.5%

Polymarket

$10,580,404 Vol.

Tom Steyer 68.5%

Matt Mahan 9%

Katie Porter 8.2%

Steve Hilton 5.5%

Polymarket

$10,580,404 Vol.

Tom Steyer

$2,867,327 Vol.

68%

Matt Mahan

$288,790 Vol.

9%

Katie Porter

$730,811 Vol.

8%

Steve Hilton

$898,007 Vol.

5%

Xavier Becerra

$472,671 Vol.

5%

Chad Bianco

$814,559 Vol.

2%

Kamala Harris

$275,989 Vol.

1%

Betty Yee

$213,126 Vol.

<1%

Elaine Culotti

$145,358 Vol.

<1%

Antonio Villaraigosa

$171,706 Vol.

<1%

Rick Caruso

$340,465 Vol.

<1%

Stephen Cloobeck

$207,645 Vol.

<1%

Kyle Langford

$584,763 Vol.

<1%

Eleni Kounalakis

$365,169 Vol.

<1%

Tony Thurmond

$201,950 Vol.

<1%

Leo Zacky

$228,211 Vol.

<1%

Eric Swalwell

$271,145 Vol.

<1%

Alex Padilla

$287,206 Vol.

<1%

Butch Ware

$224,082 Vol.

<1%

Toni Atkins

$226,852 Vol.

<1%

Daniel Mercuri

$239,638 Vol.

<1%

Michael Younger

$297,766 Vol.

<1%

Nicole Shanahan

$227,909 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Trader consensus favors billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer at 68% implied probability to win California's 2026 gubernatorial election, driven by Rep. Eric Swalwell's abrupt exit from the race this week, which consolidated Democratic support in the crowded nonpartisan top-two primary set for June 2. Recent polls, including one released two days ago, show Steyer leading fellow Democrats like San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan (8%) and Rep. Katie Porter (8%), while Republican Steve Hilton trails at around 5-6%; the California Teachers Association's April 14 endorsement and Steyer's self-funding—over $100 million—bolster his frontrunner status amid voter frustration with housing costs and affordability. A top-two finish advances candidates to November's general election, where Democrats historically dominate, though GOP challengers like Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco persist at low odds.

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Volume
$10,580,404
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 9, 2025, 7:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Trader consensus favors billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer at 68% implied probability to win California's 2026 gubernatorial election, driven by Rep. Eric Swalwell's abrupt exit from the race this week, which consolidated Democratic support in the crowded nonpartisan top-two primary set for June 2. Recent polls, including one released two days ago, show Steyer leading fellow Democrats like San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan (8%) and Rep. Katie Porter (8%), while Republican Steve Hilton trails at around 5-6%; the California Teachers Association's April 14 endorsement and Steyer's self-funding—over $100 million—bolster his frontrunner status amid voter frustration with housing costs and affordability. A top-two finish advances candidates to November's general election, where Democrats historically dominate, though GOP challengers like Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco persist at low odds.

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Volume
$10,580,404
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 9, 2025, 7:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"California Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tom Steyer" at 68%, followed by "Matt Mahan" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 68¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 68% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "California Governor Election Winner" has generated $10.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "California Governor Election Winner," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "California Governor Election Winner" is "Tom Steyer" at 68%, meaning the market assigns a 68% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Matt Mahan" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "California Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.