Met Office observational data from key London stations, including Heathrow and St James's Park, confirm the highest temperature on May 4, 2026, reached 15°C amid persistent overcast skies and a cool northeasterly breeze that suppressed solar insolation and daytime heating. This aligns with the latest forecast model consensus projecting maxima around 15–16°C, reflecting unsettled spring weather patterns with low-pressure influence over southern England. Trader consensus at nearly 100% implied probability for 15°C underscores the reliability of these verified measurements, as Polymarket resolves on finalized Wunderground data from London City Airport (EGLC) to whole degrees Celsius. Realistic challenges would require rare post-processing revisions uncovering a higher peak, though multi-station agreement makes this improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on May 4?
Highest temperature in London on May 4?
15°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$347,218 Vol.
$347,218 Vol.
May 4, 2026
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
15°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$347,218 Vol.
$347,218 Vol.
May 4, 2026
12°C or below
$4,270 Vol.
No
13°C
$3,233 Vol.
No
14°C
$5,791 Vol.
No
15°C
$110,289 Vol.
Yes
16°C
$69,072 Vol.
No
17°C
$55,665 Vol.
No
18°C
$31,470 Vol.
No
19°C
$30,859 Vol.
No
20°C
$19,216 Vol.
No
21°C
$11,316 Vol.
No
22°C or higher
$6,037 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Met Office observational data from key London stations, including Heathrow and St James's Park, confirm the highest temperature on May 4, 2026, reached 15°C amid persistent overcast skies and a cool northeasterly breeze that suppressed solar insolation and daytime heating. This aligns with the latest forecast model consensus projecting maxima around 15–16°C, reflecting unsettled spring weather patterns with low-pressure influence over southern England. Trader consensus at nearly 100% implied probability for 15°C underscores the reliability of these verified measurements, as Polymarket resolves on finalized Wunderground data from London City Airport (EGLC) to whole degrees Celsius. Realistic challenges would require rare post-processing revisions uncovering a higher peak, though multi-station agreement makes this improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 2, 2026, 12:44 AM ET
Volume
$347,218End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:44 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Met Office observational data from key London stations, including Heathrow and St James's Park, confirm the highest temperature on May 4, 2026, reached 15°C amid persistent overcast skies and a cool northeasterly breeze that suppressed solar insolation and daytime heating. This aligns with the latest forecast model consensus projecting maxima around 15–16°C, reflecting unsettled spring weather patterns with low-pressure influence over southern England. Trader consensus at nearly 100% implied probability for 15°C underscores the reliability of these verified measurements, as Polymarket resolves on finalized Wunderground data from London City Airport (EGLC) to whole degrees Celsius. Realistic challenges would require rare post-processing revisions uncovering a higher peak, though multi-station agreement makes this improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$347,218End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:44 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Met Office observational data from key London stations, including Heathrow and St James's Park, confirm the highest temperature on May 4, 2026, reached 15°C amid persistent overcast skies and a cool northeasterly breeze that suppressed solar insolation and daytime heating. This aligns with the latest forecast model consensus projecting maxima around 15–16°C, reflecting unsettled spring weather patterns with low-pressure influence over southern England. Trader consensus at nearly 100% implied probability for 15°C underscores the reliability of these verified measurements, as Polymarket resolves on finalized Wunderground data from London City Airport (EGLC) to whole degrees Celsius. Realistic challenges would require rare post-processing revisions uncovering a higher peak, though multi-station agreement makes this improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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