Trader consensus on Polymarket centers around 21°C (32% implied probability) and 20°C (27%) as the highest temperature in Paris on April 17, reflecting the tight spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts averaging 20-21°C amid a high-pressure ridge over western Europe fostering mild, stable conditions with light southerly winds and ample sunshine. Key differentiators include model disagreements on afternoon cloud cover—clearer skies could push peaks to 22°C (18.5%), while increased low-level moisture might cap them at 19-20°C—as well as urban heat island effects amplifying official station readings at Paris-Montsouris. Above climatological mid-April norms of 16°C, this setup signals above-average warmth, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists; monitor Météo-France updates and new 00Z model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on April 17?
Highest temperature in Paris on April 17?
21°C 34%
22°C 23%
20°C 22%
19°C 13%
16°C or below
1%
17°C
3%
18°C
6%
19°C
13%
20°C
22%
21°C
34%
22°C
23%
23°C
12%
24°C
3%
25°C
2%
26°C or higher
2%
21°C 34%
22°C 23%
20°C 22%
19°C 13%
16°C or below
1%
17°C
3%
18°C
6%
19°C
13%
20°C
22%
21°C
34%
22°C
23%
23°C
12%
24°C
3%
25°C
2%
26°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers around 21°C (32% implied probability) and 20°C (27%) as the highest temperature in Paris on April 17, reflecting the tight spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts averaging 20-21°C amid a high-pressure ridge over western Europe fostering mild, stable conditions with light southerly winds and ample sunshine. Key differentiators include model disagreements on afternoon cloud cover—clearer skies could push peaks to 22°C (18.5%), while increased low-level moisture might cap them at 19-20°C—as well as urban heat island effects amplifying official station readings at Paris-Montsouris. Above climatological mid-April norms of 16°C, this setup signals above-average warmth, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists; monitor Météo-France updates and new 00Z model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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