**The official National Weather Service observation at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) recorded a maximum of 85°F on September 10, 2026, directly anchoring the market’s near-certain 84-85°F outcome.** This value fell well above the long-term normal of 75°F yet remained below the prior-day peak of 94°F during the same late-summer heat wave. A strong offshore flow and delayed sea breeze allowed inland warming to reach the coast midday before moderating afternoon winds brought slight relief. The 85°F reading sits comfortably inside the market’s dominant bin while exceeding the 89°F all-time September 10 record only in the sense that it matched a near-record warm day without surpassing it. Resolution hinges on the single authoritative KSFO maximum; alternative stations, preliminary spot readings, or post-hoc quality-control adjustments could theoretically shift the final figure, though such revisions are rare once the daily climate summary is issued. Traders priced in the observed data with essentially full certainty once the NWS preliminary report confirmed the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on September 10?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on September 10?
84-85°F 100.0%
71°F or below <1%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
$53,950 Vol.
$53,950 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
71°F or below
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
Yes
86-87°F
No
88-89°F
No
90°F or higher
No
84-85°F 100.0%
71°F or below <1%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
$53,950 Vol.
$53,950 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
71°F or below
$895 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$904 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$2,894 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$3,411 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$4,436 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$4,542 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$7,683 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$9,364 Vol.
Yes
86-87°F
$6,143 Vol.
No
88-89°F
$6,818 Vol.
No
90°F or higher
$6,861 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The official National Weather Service observation at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) recorded a maximum of 85°F on September 10, 2026, directly anchoring the market’s near-certain 84-85°F outcome.** This value fell well above the long-term normal of 75°F yet remained below the prior-day peak of 94°F during the same late-summer heat wave. A strong offshore flow and delayed sea breeze allowed inland warming to reach the coast midday before moderating afternoon winds brought slight relief. The 85°F reading sits comfortably inside the market’s dominant bin while exceeding the 89°F all-time September 10 record only in the sense that it matched a near-record warm day without surpassing it.
Resolution hinges on the single authoritative KSFO maximum; alternative stations, preliminary spot readings, or post-hoc quality-control adjustments could theoretically shift the final figure, though such revisions are rare once the daily climate summary is issued. Traders priced in the observed data with essentially full certainty once the NWS preliminary report confirmed the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$53,950End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The official National Weather Service observation at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) recorded a maximum of 85°F on September 10, 2026, directly anchoring the market’s near-certain 84-85°F outcome.** This value fell well above the long-term normal of 75°F yet remained below the prior-day peak of 94°F during the same late-summer heat wave. A strong offshore flow and delayed sea breeze allowed inland warming to reach the coast midday before moderating afternoon winds brought slight relief. The 85°F reading sits comfortably inside the market’s dominant bin while exceeding the 89°F all-time September 10 record only in the sense that it matched a near-record warm day without surpassing it.
Resolution hinges on the single authoritative KSFO maximum; alternative stations, preliminary spot readings, or post-hoc quality-control adjustments could theoretically shift the final figure, though such revisions are rare once the daily climate summary is issued. Traders priced in the observed data with essentially full certainty once the NWS preliminary report confirmed the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$53,950End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**The official National Weather Service observation at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) recorded a maximum of 85°F on September 10, 2026, directly anchoring the market’s near-certain 84-85°F outcome.** This value fell well above the long-term normal of 75°F yet remained below the prior-day peak of 94°F during the same late-summer heat wave. A strong offshore flow and delayed sea breeze allowed inland warming to reach the coast midday before moderating afternoon winds brought slight relief. The 85°F reading sits comfortably inside the market’s dominant bin while exceeding the 89°F all-time September 10 record only in the sense that it matched a near-record warm day without surpassing it. Resolution hinges on the single authoritative KSFO maximum; alternative stations, preliminary spot readings, or post-hoc quality-control adjustments could theoretically shift the final figure, though such revisions are rare once the daily climate summary is issued. Traders priced in the observed data with essentially full certainty once the NWS preliminary report confirmed the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions