Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 17 at 14-16°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds from a mild high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, positioning 15°C as the trader-favored outcome at 38.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 14°C at 28.5%. This reflects IMGW's weekly outlook for central Poland maxima around 14°C, consistent with recent observational trends where April 2026 temperatures have averaged near the mid-month climatological norm of 13-14°C amid stable spring conditions. Ensemble spreads indicate modest uncertainty from variable cloud cover potentially capping diurnal heating, with new model updates expected overnight that could shift odds before official measurements from Warsaw stations resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 17?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 17?
15°C 39%
14°C 27%
16°C 15%
13°C 12.0%
NEW
$17,896 Vol.
NEW
$17,896 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
12%
14°C
27%
15°C
39%
16°C
15%
17°C or higher
6%
15°C 39%
14°C 27%
16°C 15%
13°C 12.0%
NEW
$17,896 Vol.
NEW
$17,896 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
7°C or below
$1,001 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$1,438 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$2,006 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$3,987 Vol.
1%
11°C
$1,628 Vol.
1%
12°C
$1,219 Vol.
2%
13°C
$2,019 Vol.
12%
14°C
$992 Vol.
27%
15°C
$809 Vol.
39%
16°C
$1,310 Vol.
15%
17°C or higher
$1,538 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 17 at 14-16°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds from a mild high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, positioning 15°C as the trader-favored outcome at 38.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 14°C at 28.5%. This reflects IMGW's weekly outlook for central Poland maxima around 14°C, consistent with recent observational trends where April 2026 temperatures have averaged near the mid-month climatological norm of 13-14°C amid stable spring conditions. Ensemble spreads indicate modest uncertainty from variable cloud cover potentially capping diurnal heating, with new model updates expected overnight that could shift odds before official measurements from Warsaw stations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 15, 2026, 12:24 AM ET
Volume
$17,896End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 12:24 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 17 at 14-16°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds from a mild high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, positioning 15°C as the trader-favored outcome at 38.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 14°C at 28.5%. This reflects IMGW's weekly outlook for central Poland maxima around 14°C, consistent with recent observational trends where April 2026 temperatures have averaged near the mid-month climatological norm of 13-14°C amid stable spring conditions. Ensemble spreads indicate modest uncertainty from variable cloud cover potentially capping diurnal heating, with new model updates expected overnight that could shift odds before official measurements from Warsaw stations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$17,896End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 12:24 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 17 at 14-16°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds from a mild high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, positioning 15°C as the trader-favored outcome at 38.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 14°C at 28.5%. This reflects IMGW's weekly outlook for central Poland maxima around 14°C, consistent with recent observational trends where April 2026 temperatures have averaged near the mid-month climatological norm of 13-14°C amid stable spring conditions. Ensemble spreads indicate modest uncertainty from variable cloud cover potentially capping diurnal heating, with new model updates expected overnight that could shift odds before official measurements from Warsaw stations resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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