Trader consensus favors 2–3 ships successfully targeted by Iran by April 30 at 51.5%, reflecting diminished Iranian naval capabilities following U.S. strikes that destroyed IRGC vessels, mine-laying boats, and missile sites in the Strait of Hormuz since early March. No confirmed hits on commercial shipping have occurred in the past two weeks amid a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire and Trump's deadline for reopening the strait, with the last verified strike—the Al Salmi tanker on March 30—marking a lull despite threats. Iran-backed Houthi missile launches at Israel on March 28 and a failed boarding attempt near Bab el-Mandeb on April 12 have stoked Red Sea fears but yielded no successes, underscoring effective U.S. and allied naval patrols constraining escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
2–3 51%
4–5 19%
8–9 9%
6–7 8%
$60,937 Vol.
$60,937 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
2–3
51%
4–5
19%
6–7
8%
8–9
9%
10+
4%
2–3 51%
4–5 19%
8–9 9%
6–7 8%
$60,937 Vol.
$60,937 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
2–3
$8,522 Vol.
51%
4–5
$14,175 Vol.
19%
6–7
$3,596 Vol.
8%
8–9
$6,654 Vol.
9%
10+
$3,259 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 2–3 ships successfully targeted by Iran by April 30 at 51.5%, reflecting diminished Iranian naval capabilities following U.S. strikes that destroyed IRGC vessels, mine-laying boats, and missile sites in the Strait of Hormuz since early March. No confirmed hits on commercial shipping have occurred in the past two weeks amid a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire and Trump's deadline for reopening the strait, with the last verified strike—the Al Salmi tanker on March 30—marking a lull despite threats. Iran-backed Houthi missile launches at Israel on March 28 and a failed boarding attempt near Bab el-Mandeb on April 12 have stoked Red Sea fears but yielded no successes, underscoring effective U.S. and allied naval patrols constraining escalation.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
Volume
$60,937End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 2–3 ships successfully targeted by Iran by April 30 at 51.5%, reflecting diminished Iranian naval capabilities following U.S. strikes that destroyed IRGC vessels, mine-laying boats, and missile sites in the Strait of Hormuz since early March. No confirmed hits on commercial shipping have occurred in the past two weeks amid a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire and Trump's deadline for reopening the strait, with the last verified strike—the Al Salmi tanker on March 30—marking a lull despite threats. Iran-backed Houthi missile launches at Israel on March 28 and a failed boarding attempt near Bab el-Mandeb on April 12 have stoked Red Sea fears but yielded no successes, underscoring effective U.S. and allied naval patrols constraining escalation.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$60,937End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 2–3 ships successfully targeted by Iran by April 30 at 51.5%, reflecting diminished Iranian naval capabilities following U.S. strikes that destroyed IRGC vessels, mine-laying boats, and missile sites in the Strait of Hormuz since early March. No confirmed hits on commercial shipping have occurred in the past two weeks amid a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire and Trump's deadline for reopening the strait, with the last verified strike—the Al Salmi tanker on March 30—marking a lull despite threats. Iran-backed Houthi missile launches at Israel on March 28 and a failed boarding attempt near Bab el-Mandeb on April 12 have stoked Red Sea fears but yielded no successes, underscoring effective U.S. and allied naval patrols constraining escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions