Recent National Weather Service guidance points to overnight lows near 58–66°F for Chicago on August 25, with the precise minimum hinging on evolving cloud cover, wind speeds, and boundary-layer moisture ahead of a modest warm-up. Clear or partly cloudy skies under high pressure would enhance radiative cooling after sunset, favoring readings in the upper 50s, while increased clouds or a light southerly flow could limit drops to the mid-60s. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence and typical late-August humidity levels add further variability, as even modest changes in dew points or mixing can shift the minimum by several degrees. With leading market outcomes clustered around 58–59°F yet substantial probability assigned to both cooler and warmer bins, traders are pricing in the inherent spread among short-range model solutions before final NWS observations at O’Hare resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 25?
68°F or higher 69%
49°F or below 67%
52-53°F 49%
54-55°F 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
49°F or below
67%
50-51°F
20%
52-53°F
49%
54-55°F
49%
56-57°F
27%
58-59°F
37%
60-61°F
29%
62-63°F
25%
64-65°F
25%
66-67°F
16%
68°F or higher
69%
68°F or higher 69%
49°F or below 67%
52-53°F 49%
54-55°F 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
49°F or below
$5 Vol.
67%
50-51°F
$5 Vol.
20%
52-53°F
$5 Vol.
49%
54-55°F
$5 Vol.
49%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
27%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
37%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
29%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
25%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
25%
66-67°F
$5 Vol.
16%
68°F or higher
$5 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance points to overnight lows near 58–66°F for Chicago on August 25, with the precise minimum hinging on evolving cloud cover, wind speeds, and boundary-layer moisture ahead of a modest warm-up. Clear or partly cloudy skies under high pressure would enhance radiative cooling after sunset, favoring readings in the upper 50s, while increased clouds or a light southerly flow could limit drops to the mid-60s. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence and typical late-August humidity levels add further variability, as even modest changes in dew points or mixing can shift the minimum by several degrees. With leading market outcomes clustered around 58–59°F yet substantial probability assigned to both cooler and warmer bins, traders are pricing in the inherent spread among short-range model solutions before final NWS observations at O’Hare resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$30End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance points to overnight lows near 58–66°F for Chicago on August 25, with the precise minimum hinging on evolving cloud cover, wind speeds, and boundary-layer moisture ahead of a modest warm-up. Clear or partly cloudy skies under high pressure would enhance radiative cooling after sunset, favoring readings in the upper 50s, while increased clouds or a light southerly flow could limit drops to the mid-60s. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence and typical late-August humidity levels add further variability, as even modest changes in dew points or mixing can shift the minimum by several degrees. With leading market outcomes clustered around 58–59°F yet substantial probability assigned to both cooler and warmer bins, traders are pricing in the inherent spread among short-range model solutions before final NWS observations at O’Hare resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance points to overnight lows near 58–66°F for Chicago on August 25, with the precise minimum hinging on evolving cloud cover, wind speeds, and boundary-layer moisture ahead of a modest warm-up. Clear or partly cloudy skies under high pressure would enhance radiative cooling after sunset, favoring readings in the upper 50s, while increased clouds or a light southerly flow could limit drops to the mid-60s. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence and typical late-August humidity levels add further variability, as even modest changes in dew points or mixing can shift the minimum by several degrees. With leading market outcomes clustered around 58–59°F yet substantial probability assigned to both cooler and warmer bins, traders are pricing in the inherent spread among short-range model solutions before final NWS observations at O’Hare resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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