Official measurements from the Hong Kong Observatory established a daily minimum of exactly 25°C on June 15, driving the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome. This aligns with June climatology, where overnight lows typically range 24–27°C amid the southwest monsoon, and seasonal outlooks had projected above-normal warmth overall. Model consensus ahead of the date showed limited overnight cooling potential, with no major frontal systems or enhanced cloud cover to push readings lower. Traders weighted the Observatory's calibrated station data heavily, as it serves as the definitive resolution source. A last-minute instrument calibration issue or localized microclimate anomaly remains theoretically possible but lacks supporting evidence from regional networks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?
25°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$53,291 Vol.
$53,291 Vol.
Jun 15, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$53,291 Vol.
$53,291 Vol.
Jun 15, 2026
22°C or below
$6,352 Vol.
No
23°C
$7,708 Vol.
No
24°C
$7,339 Vol.
No
25°C
$11,174 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$9,787 Vol.
No
27°C
$6,281 Vol.
No
28°C
$1,848 Vol.
No
29°C
$1,835 Vol.
No
30°C
$408 Vol.
No
31°C
$151 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$406 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official measurements from the Hong Kong Observatory established a daily minimum of exactly 25°C on June 15, driving the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome. This aligns with June climatology, where overnight lows typically range 24–27°C amid the southwest monsoon, and seasonal outlooks had projected above-normal warmth overall. Model consensus ahead of the date showed limited overnight cooling potential, with no major frontal systems or enhanced cloud cover to push readings lower. Traders weighted the Observatory's calibrated station data heavily, as it serves as the definitive resolution source. A last-minute instrument calibration issue or localized microclimate anomaly remains theoretically possible but lacks supporting evidence from regional networks.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jun 13, 2026, 12:33 AM ET
Volume
$53,291End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 12:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official measurements from the Hong Kong Observatory established a daily minimum of exactly 25°C on June 15, driving the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome. This aligns with June climatology, where overnight lows typically range 24–27°C amid the southwest monsoon, and seasonal outlooks had projected above-normal warmth overall. Model consensus ahead of the date showed limited overnight cooling potential, with no major frontal systems or enhanced cloud cover to push readings lower. Traders weighted the Observatory's calibrated station data heavily, as it serves as the definitive resolution source. A last-minute instrument calibration issue or localized microclimate anomaly remains theoretically possible but lacks supporting evidence from regional networks.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$53,291End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 12:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official measurements from the Hong Kong Observatory established a daily minimum of exactly 25°C on June 15, driving the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome. This aligns with June climatology, where overnight lows typically range 24–27°C amid the southwest monsoon, and seasonal outlooks had projected above-normal warmth overall. Model consensus ahead of the date showed limited overnight cooling potential, with no major frontal systems or enhanced cloud cover to push readings lower. Traders weighted the Observatory's calibrated station data heavily, as it serves as the definitive resolution source. A last-minute instrument calibration issue or localized microclimate anomaly remains theoretically possible but lacks supporting evidence from regional networks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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