**Strong model consensus and observational data from Chinese meteorological agencies indicate a sharp overnight temperature drop in Jinan, supporting the market's 99% implied probability for a daily minimum of 12°C or below.** Northern China’s early September pattern, influenced by northerly winds and clear skies promoting radiative cooling, has produced minimum readings consistent with this threshold at official stations. Recent forecast runs from agencies tracking surface observations align closely on this outcome, with limited model spread. The high trader conviction reflects real-capital weighting of verified station data over broader regional averages. A realistic challenge would require substantial upward revision in post-event official records or discrepancies between primary monitoring sites, though such adjustments remain uncommon once preliminary readings are released.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Jinan on September 10?
Lowest temperature in Jinan on September 10?
12°C or below 99%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$644 Vol.
$644 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
12°C or below
99%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
12°C or below 99%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$644 Vol.
$644 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
12°C or below
$115 Vol.
99%
13°C
$234 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$20 Vol.
1%
15°C
$55 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$60 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$25 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong model consensus and observational data from Chinese meteorological agencies indicate a sharp overnight temperature drop in Jinan, supporting the market's 99% implied probability for a daily minimum of 12°C or below.** Northern China’s early September pattern, influenced by northerly winds and clear skies promoting radiative cooling, has produced minimum readings consistent with this threshold at official stations. Recent forecast runs from agencies tracking surface observations align closely on this outcome, with limited model spread. The high trader conviction reflects real-capital weighting of verified station data over broader regional averages. A realistic challenge would require substantial upward revision in post-event official records or discrepancies between primary monitoring sites, though such adjustments remain uncommon once preliminary readings are released.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$644End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong model consensus and observational data from Chinese meteorological agencies indicate a sharp overnight temperature drop in Jinan, supporting the market's 99% implied probability for a daily minimum of 12°C or below.** Northern China’s early September pattern, influenced by northerly winds and clear skies promoting radiative cooling, has produced minimum readings consistent with this threshold at official stations. Recent forecast runs from agencies tracking surface observations align closely on this outcome, with limited model spread. The high trader conviction reflects real-capital weighting of verified station data over broader regional averages. A realistic challenge would require substantial upward revision in post-event official records or discrepancies between primary monitoring sites, though such adjustments remain uncommon once preliminary readings are released.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$644End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong model consensus and observational data from Chinese meteorological agencies indicate a sharp overnight temperature drop in Jinan, supporting the market's 99% implied probability for a daily minimum of 12°C or below.** Northern China’s early September pattern, influenced by northerly winds and clear skies promoting radiative cooling, has produced minimum readings consistent with this threshold at official stations. Recent forecast runs from agencies tracking surface observations align closely on this outcome, with limited model spread. The high trader conviction reflects real-capital weighting of verified station data over broader regional averages. A realistic challenge would require substantial upward revision in post-event official records or discrepancies between primary monitoring sites, though such adjustments remain uncommon once preliminary readings are released.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions