Forecast consensus from models such as GFS points to a minimum temperature near 16–17°C in Milan on September 11, driven by light winds, high humidity near 90% overnight, and lingering cloud cover from recent showers that limit radiational cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading 16°C outcome at 31.5% implied probability, while the close 14°C share reflects uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and any localized thunderstorm development. Warmer 22°C+ probabilities capture upside risk if daytime heating persists longer into the evening under building high pressure. Historical September lows average near 16°C, providing a baseline against which short-term model spreads and the next 24-hour forecast updates will determine resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Milan on September 11?
12°C or below 55%
22°C or higher 55%
18°C 39%
16°C 32%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
12°C or below
55%
13°C
23%
14°C
26%
15°C
25%
16°C
32%
17°C
16%
18°C
39%
19°C
27%
20°C
8%
21°C
8%
22°C or higher
55%
12°C or below 55%
22°C or higher 55%
18°C 39%
16°C 32%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
12°C or below
$0 Vol.
55%
13°C
$0 Vol.
23%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$0 Vol.
25%
16°C
$0 Vol.
32%
17°C
$35 Vol.
16%
18°C
$0 Vol.
39%
19°C
$0 Vol.
27%
20°C
$0 Vol.
8%
21°C
$0 Vol.
8%
22°C or higher
$0 Vol.
55%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from models such as GFS points to a minimum temperature near 16–17°C in Milan on September 11, driven by light winds, high humidity near 90% overnight, and lingering cloud cover from recent showers that limit radiational cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading 16°C outcome at 31.5% implied probability, while the close 14°C share reflects uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and any localized thunderstorm development. Warmer 22°C+ probabilities capture upside risk if daytime heating persists longer into the evening under building high pressure. Historical September lows average near 16°C, providing a baseline against which short-term model spreads and the next 24-hour forecast updates will determine resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$35End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from models such as GFS points to a minimum temperature near 16–17°C in Milan on September 11, driven by light winds, high humidity near 90% overnight, and lingering cloud cover from recent showers that limit radiational cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading 16°C outcome at 31.5% implied probability, while the close 14°C share reflects uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and any localized thunderstorm development. Warmer 22°C+ probabilities capture upside risk if daytime heating persists longer into the evening under building high pressure. Historical September lows average near 16°C, providing a baseline against which short-term model spreads and the next 24-hour forecast updates will determine resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$35End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast consensus from models such as GFS points to a minimum temperature near 16–17°C in Milan on September 11, driven by light winds, high humidity near 90% overnight, and lingering cloud cover from recent showers that limit radiational cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading 16°C outcome at 31.5% implied probability, while the close 14°C share reflects uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and any localized thunderstorm development. Warmer 22°C+ probabilities capture upside risk if daytime heating persists longer into the evening under building high pressure. Historical September lows average near 16°C, providing a baseline against which short-term model spreads and the next 24-hour forecast updates will determine resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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