Michigan's 10th congressional district became an open seat after incumbent Republican John James retired to pursue higher office, drawing multiple Democratic primary candidates including Christina Hines, Eric Chung, and Tim Greimel. A July 2026 EMILYs List poll showed Hines leading the August 4 Democratic primary, while fundraising reports indicate competitive totals across both parties. Independent race ratings classify the contest as a toss-up or lean Republican, yet traders assign Democrats a 64.5% implied probability of victory, consistent with recent national generic ballot surveys showing a modest Democratic edge heading into the 2026 midterms. The district's Republican lean from prior presidential results and the absence of an incumbent create a competitive environment where primary outcomes, voter turnout in Macomb County suburbs, and broader midterm dynamics could determine the general election result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMI-10 House Election Winner
MI-10 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
65%
Republican Party
35%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$1,920 Vol.
65%
Republican Party
$1,153 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Michigan's 10th congressional district became an open seat after incumbent Republican John James retired to pursue higher office, drawing multiple Democratic primary candidates including Christina Hines, Eric Chung, and Tim Greimel. A July 2026 EMILYs List poll showed Hines leading the August 4 Democratic primary, while fundraising reports indicate competitive totals across both parties. Independent race ratings classify the contest as a toss-up or lean Republican, yet traders assign Democrats a 64.5% implied probability of victory, consistent with recent national generic ballot surveys showing a modest Democratic edge heading into the 2026 midterms. The district's Republican lean from prior presidential results and the absence of an incumbent create a competitive environment where primary outcomes, voter turnout in Macomb County suburbs, and broader midterm dynamics could determine the general election result.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
Volume
$3,073End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Michigan's 10th congressional district became an open seat after incumbent Republican John James retired to pursue higher office, drawing multiple Democratic primary candidates including Christina Hines, Eric Chung, and Tim Greimel. A July 2026 EMILYs List poll showed Hines leading the August 4 Democratic primary, while fundraising reports indicate competitive totals across both parties. Independent race ratings classify the contest as a toss-up or lean Republican, yet traders assign Democrats a 64.5% implied probability of victory, consistent with recent national generic ballot surveys showing a modest Democratic edge heading into the 2026 midterms. The district's Republican lean from prior presidential results and the absence of an incumbent create a competitive environment where primary outcomes, voter turnout in Macomb County suburbs, and broader midterm dynamics could determine the general election result.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$3,073End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Michigan's 10th congressional district became an open seat after incumbent Republican John James retired to pursue higher office, drawing multiple Democratic primary candidates including Christina Hines, Eric Chung, and Tim Greimel. A July 2026 EMILYs List poll showed Hines leading the August 4 Democratic primary, while fundraising reports indicate competitive totals across both parties. Independent race ratings classify the contest as a toss-up or lean Republican, yet traders assign Democrats a 64.5% implied probability of victory, consistent with recent national generic ballot surveys showing a modest Democratic edge heading into the 2026 midterms. The district's Republican lean from prior presidential results and the absence of an incumbent create a competitive environment where primary outcomes, voter turnout in Macomb County suburbs, and broader midterm dynamics could determine the general election result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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