Incumbent Republican Greg Murphy seeks reelection against Democrat Raymond Smith Jr. in North Carolina’s 3rd congressional district on November 3, 2026. The district’s R+6 Cook Partisan Voting Index, shaped by the October 2025 redistricting that traded coastal Republican counties for more competitive inland areas, sustains a structural Republican advantage consistent with the 85.5% market price. Murphy advanced without opposition in the Republican primary, while Smith prevailed in the Democratic primary, yet forecasters from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others maintain Solid or Safe Republican ratings. No recent polling or events have altered these fundamentals, leaving the outcome aligned with the seat’s partisan baseline and incumbent strength.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNC-03 House Election Winner
NC-03 House Election Winner
$19,140 Vol.
$19,140 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
86%
Democratic Party
14%
$19,140 Vol.
$19,140 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$14,276 Vol.
86%
Democratic Party
$4,863 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Greg Murphy seeks reelection against Democrat Raymond Smith Jr. in North Carolina’s 3rd congressional district on November 3, 2026. The district’s R+6 Cook Partisan Voting Index, shaped by the October 2025 redistricting that traded coastal Republican counties for more competitive inland areas, sustains a structural Republican advantage consistent with the 85.5% market price. Murphy advanced without opposition in the Republican primary, while Smith prevailed in the Democratic primary, yet forecasters from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others maintain Solid or Safe Republican ratings. No recent polling or events have altered these fundamentals, leaving the outcome aligned with the seat’s partisan baseline and incumbent strength.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$19,140End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Greg Murphy seeks reelection against Democrat Raymond Smith Jr. in North Carolina’s 3rd congressional district on November 3, 2026. The district’s R+6 Cook Partisan Voting Index, shaped by the October 2025 redistricting that traded coastal Republican counties for more competitive inland areas, sustains a structural Republican advantage consistent with the 85.5% market price. Murphy advanced without opposition in the Republican primary, while Smith prevailed in the Democratic primary, yet forecasters from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others maintain Solid or Safe Republican ratings. No recent polling or events have altered these fundamentals, leaving the outcome aligned with the seat’s partisan baseline and incumbent strength.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,140End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Greg Murphy seeks reelection against Democrat Raymond Smith Jr. in North Carolina’s 3rd congressional district on November 3, 2026. The district’s R+6 Cook Partisan Voting Index, shaped by the October 2025 redistricting that traded coastal Republican counties for more competitive inland areas, sustains a structural Republican advantage consistent with the 85.5% market price. Murphy advanced without opposition in the Republican primary, while Smith prevailed in the Democratic primary, yet forecasters from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others maintain Solid or Safe Republican ratings. No recent polling or events have altered these fundamentals, leaving the outcome aligned with the seat’s partisan baseline and incumbent strength.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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