Recent CNN and UMass polls released this week show President Trump's overall approval rating slipping to new second-term lows around 33-36%, with his handling of the economy hitting a career low of 31% amid surging fuel prices, persistent inflation, and criticism over tariffs, jobs, and immigration policy. Escalation in the war with Iran has further eroded support, particularly among independents, driving net approval to -17 or worse in polling averages like Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin. Traders' 67% implied probability for a weekly decline reflects this downward trend in fresh surveys, outweighing any stabilizing factors, though rapid shifts remain possible ahead of 2026 midterms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUp
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Apr 11, 2026
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Apr 11, 2026
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 10, 2026, than on April 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 3, 2026, than on April 10, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent CNN and UMass polls released this week show President Trump's overall approval rating slipping to new second-term lows around 33-36%, with his handling of the economy hitting a career low of 31% amid surging fuel prices, persistent inflation, and criticism over tariffs, jobs, and immigration policy. Escalation in the war with Iran has further eroded support, particularly among independents, driving net approval to -17 or worse in polling averages like Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin. Traders' 67% implied probability for a weekly decline reflects this downward trend in fresh surveys, outweighing any stabilizing factors, though rapid shifts remain possible ahead of 2026 midterms.
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 10, 2026, than on April 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 3, 2026, than on April 10, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 3, 2026, than on April 10, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Apr 3, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
Volume
$1End Date
Apr 11, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 12:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 10, 2026, than on April 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 3, 2026, than on April 10, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent CNN and UMass polls released this week show President Trump's overall approval rating slipping to new second-term lows around 33-36%, with his handling of the economy hitting a career low of 31% amid surging fuel prices, persistent inflation, and criticism over tariffs, jobs, and immigration policy. Escalation in the war with Iran has further eroded support, particularly among independents, driving net approval to -17 or worse in polling averages like Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin. Traders' 67% implied probability for a weekly decline reflects this downward trend in fresh surveys, outweighing any stabilizing factors, though rapid shifts remain possible ahead of 2026 midterms.
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 10, 2026, than on April 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 3, 2026, than on April 10, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 3, 2026, than on April 10, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$1End Date
Apr 11, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 12:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent CNN and UMass polls released this week show President Trump's overall approval rating slipping to new second-term lows around 33-36%, with his handling of the economy hitting a career low of 31% amid surging fuel prices, persistent inflation, and criticism over tariffs, jobs, and immigration policy. Escalation in the war with Iran has further eroded support, particularly among independents, driving net approval to -17 or worse in polling averages like Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin. Traders' 67% implied probability for a weekly decline reflects this downward trend in fresh surveys, outweighing any stabilizing factors, though rapid shifts remain possible ahead of 2026 midterms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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