Recent polling averages from RealClearPolitics (40.9% approve as of early April), Nate Silver Bulletin (below 40% net -16.9 on April 3), and CNN Poll of Polls (37% approve) have clustered President Trump's job approval rating in the high 30s to low 40s, fueling trader consensus around the 38.5–39.9% bins on Polymarket. A fresh CNN/SSRS survey released this week marked his economy handling approval at a career-low 31%, amid voter concerns over gas prices and inflation, pushing net approval into negative territory for the first time in his second term. The race stays tight due to daily tracker volatility and strong Republican support offsetting independents' -45 net disapproval. Upcoming jobs data or Federal Reserve signals by April 10 could tip probabilities toward sub-38.5% or 40%+.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated39.5–39.9 61%
39.0–39.4 31%
38.5–38.9 30%
40.0–40.4 27%
NEW
NEW
Apr 11, 2026
<38.5
15%
38.5–38.9
30%
39.0–39.4
31%
39.5–39.9
38%
40.0–40.4
27%
40.5+
5%
39.5–39.9 61%
39.0–39.4 31%
38.5–38.9 30%
40.0–40.4 27%
NEW
NEW
Apr 11, 2026
<38.5
$180 Vol.
15%
38.5–38.9
$0 Vol.
30%
39.0–39.4
$0 Vol.
31%
39.5–39.9
$163 Vol.
38%
40.0–40.4
$0 Vol.
27%
40.5+
$523 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on April 10, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent polling averages from RealClearPolitics (40.9% approve as of early April), Nate Silver Bulletin (below 40% net -16.9 on April 3), and CNN Poll of Polls (37% approve) have clustered President Trump's job approval rating in the high 30s to low 40s, fueling trader consensus around the 38.5–39.9% bins on Polymarket. A fresh CNN/SSRS survey released this week marked his economy handling approval at a career-low 31%, amid voter concerns over gas prices and inflation, pushing net approval into negative territory for the first time in his second term. The race stays tight due to daily tracker volatility and strong Republican support offsetting independents' -45 net disapproval. Upcoming jobs data or Federal Reserve signals by April 10 could tip probabilities toward sub-38.5% or 40%+.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on April 10, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Apr 3, 2026, 12:26 PM ET
Volume
$866End Date
Apr 11, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 12:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on April 10, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent polling averages from RealClearPolitics (40.9% approve as of early April), Nate Silver Bulletin (below 40% net -16.9 on April 3), and CNN Poll of Polls (37% approve) have clustered President Trump's job approval rating in the high 30s to low 40s, fueling trader consensus around the 38.5–39.9% bins on Polymarket. A fresh CNN/SSRS survey released this week marked his economy handling approval at a career-low 31%, amid voter concerns over gas prices and inflation, pushing net approval into negative territory for the first time in his second term. The race stays tight due to daily tracker volatility and strong Republican support offsetting independents' -45 net disapproval. Upcoming jobs data or Federal Reserve signals by April 10 could tip probabilities toward sub-38.5% or 40%+.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on April 10, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$866End Date
Apr 11, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 12:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages from RealClearPolitics (40.9% approve as of early April), Nate Silver Bulletin (below 40% net -16.9 on April 3), and CNN Poll of Polls (37% approve) have clustered President Trump's job approval rating in the high 30s to low 40s, fueling trader consensus around the 38.5–39.9% bins on Polymarket. A fresh CNN/SSRS survey released this week marked his economy handling approval at a career-low 31%, amid voter concerns over gas prices and inflation, pushing net approval into negative territory for the first time in his second term. The race stays tight due to daily tracker volatility and strong Republican support offsetting independents' -45 net disapproval. Upcoming jobs data or Federal Reserve signals by April 10 could tip probabilities toward sub-38.5% or 40%+.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions