Amid stalled peace efforts following the April 11-12 Islamabad talks—where U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance led the American delegation alongside special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, facing Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi—diplomats now pursue a second round amid a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and a fragile ceasefire nearing expiration. Pakistan's mediation intensified with Army Chief Asim Munir's April 15 Tehran visit delivering fresh U.S. messages, as President Trump signaled potential resumption within days, possibly in Islamabad or Geneva. Trader consensus reflects Vance's prior prominence and ongoing back-channel diplomacy, with outcomes hinging on nuclear curbs, sanctions relief, and Hormuz access amid de-escalation pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
$14,282 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Donald Trump
5%
Marco Rubio
10%
J.D. Vance
78%
Jared Kushner
76%
Steve Witkoff
87%
$14,282 Vol.
Donald Trump
$8,523 Vol.
5%
Marco Rubio
$715 Vol.
10%
J.D. Vance
$3,873 Vol.
78%
Jared Kushner
$752 Vol.
76%
Steve Witkoff
$420 Vol.
87%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not qualify as diplomatic meetings.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating in negotiations at the meeting.
If the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Amid stalled peace efforts following the April 11-12 Islamabad talks—where U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance led the American delegation alongside special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, facing Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi—diplomats now pursue a second round amid a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and a fragile ceasefire nearing expiration. Pakistan's mediation intensified with Army Chief Asim Munir's April 15 Tehran visit delivering fresh U.S. messages, as President Trump signaled potential resumption within days, possibly in Islamabad or Geneva. Trader consensus reflects Vance's prior prominence and ongoing back-channel diplomacy, with outcomes hinging on nuclear curbs, sanctions relief, and Hormuz access amid de-escalation pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not qualify as diplomatic meetings.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating in negotiations at the meeting.
If the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not qualify as diplomatic meetings.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating in negotiations at the meeting.
If the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$14,282End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not qualify as diplomatic meetings.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating in negotiations at the meeting.
If the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Amid stalled peace efforts following the April 11-12 Islamabad talks—where U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance led the American delegation alongside special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, facing Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi—diplomats now pursue a second round amid a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and a fragile ceasefire nearing expiration. Pakistan's mediation intensified with Army Chief Asim Munir's April 15 Tehran visit delivering fresh U.S. messages, as President Trump signaled potential resumption within days, possibly in Islamabad or Geneva. Trader consensus reflects Vance's prior prominence and ongoing back-channel diplomacy, with outcomes hinging on nuclear curbs, sanctions relief, and Hormuz access amid de-escalation pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not qualify as diplomatic meetings.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating in negotiations at the meeting.
If the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not qualify as diplomatic meetings.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating in negotiations at the meeting.
If the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$14,282End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid stalled peace efforts following the April 11-12 Islamabad talks—where U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance led the American delegation alongside special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, facing Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi—diplomats now pursue a second round amid a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and a fragile ceasefire nearing expiration. Pakistan's mediation intensified with Army Chief Asim Munir's April 15 Tehran visit delivering fresh U.S. messages, as President Trump signaled potential resumption within days, possibly in Islamabad or Geneva. Trader consensus reflects Vance's prior prominence and ongoing back-channel diplomacy, with outcomes hinging on nuclear curbs, sanctions relief, and Hormuz access amid de-escalation pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions