U.S. national average regular gasoline prices, per AAA data, stand at $4.09 per gallon as of April 16, propelled by supply disruptions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and partial Strait of Hormuz closures that spiked WTI crude to around $92 per barrel. The latest EIA weekly petroleum status report on April 15 revealed gasoline inventories dropping 6.3 million barrels—far exceeding forecasts—amid rising spring driving demand, sustaining upward pressure after peaking at $4.16 earlier this month. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns near-certainty to prices hitting $4.15 by April 30 but only 23% odds for $4.25 and 9% for $4.50, reflecting tempered escalation risks following recent ceasefire signals. Key watches include April 22 and 29 EIA updates, refinery utilization, and any Hormuz reopening progress.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$306,897 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
↑ $5.00
1%
↑ $4.75
1%
↑ $4.50
6%
↑ $4.25
16%
↓ $3.95
34%
↓ $3.85
14%
↓ $3.75
5%
↓ $3.50
5%
↓ $3.25
2%
↓ $3.00
1%
$306,897 Vol.
↑ $5.00
$60,710 Vol.
1%
↑ $4.75
$38,858 Vol.
1%
↑ $4.50
$13,304 Vol.
6%
↑ $4.25
$20,821 Vol.
16%
↓ $3.95
$6,621 Vol.
34%
↓ $3.85
$8,433 Vol.
14%
↓ $3.75
$3,183 Vol.
5%
↓ $3.50
$1,169 Vol.
5%
↓ $3.25
$1,246 Vol.
2%
↓ $3.00
$2,201 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".U.S. national average regular gasoline prices, per AAA data, stand at $4.09 per gallon as of April 16, propelled by supply disruptions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and partial Strait of Hormuz closures that spiked WTI crude to around $92 per barrel. The latest EIA weekly petroleum status report on April 15 revealed gasoline inventories dropping 6.3 million barrels—far exceeding forecasts—amid rising spring driving demand, sustaining upward pressure after peaking at $4.16 earlier this month. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns near-certainty to prices hitting $4.15 by April 30 but only 23% odds for $4.25 and 9% for $4.50, reflecting tempered escalation risks following recent ceasefire signals. Key watches include April 22 and 29 EIA updates, refinery utilization, and any Hormuz reopening progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 11:04 AM ET
Volume
$306,897End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 11:04 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".U.S. national average regular gasoline prices, per AAA data, stand at $4.09 per gallon as of April 16, propelled by supply disruptions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and partial Strait of Hormuz closures that spiked WTI crude to around $92 per barrel. The latest EIA weekly petroleum status report on April 15 revealed gasoline inventories dropping 6.3 million barrels—far exceeding forecasts—amid rising spring driving demand, sustaining upward pressure after peaking at $4.16 earlier this month. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns near-certainty to prices hitting $4.15 by April 30 but only 23% odds for $4.25 and 9% for $4.50, reflecting tempered escalation risks following recent ceasefire signals. Key watches include April 22 and 29 EIA updates, refinery utilization, and any Hormuz reopening progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$306,897End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 11:04 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. national average regular gasoline prices, per AAA data, stand at $4.09 per gallon as of April 16, propelled by supply disruptions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and partial Strait of Hormuz closures that spiked WTI crude to around $92 per barrel. The latest EIA weekly petroleum status report on April 15 revealed gasoline inventories dropping 6.3 million barrels—far exceeding forecasts—amid rising spring driving demand, sustaining upward pressure after peaking at $4.16 earlier this month. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns near-certainty to prices hitting $4.15 by April 30 but only 23% odds for $4.25 and 9% for $4.50, reflecting tempered escalation risks following recent ceasefire signals. Key watches include April 22 and 29 EIA updates, refinery utilization, and any Hormuz reopening progress.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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