Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicate a high-pressure ridge over Iberia favoring a peak temperature of 19°C in Madrid on March 22, driving the market's leading 30.5% implied probability, with nearby outcomes like 18°C (19.5%) and 20°C (18%) reflecting model consensus amid mild southerly flows. Historical March highs average 17-18°C at Barajas Airport, but recent mild Atlantic air masses and minimal cloud cover elevate warmer odds, while lingering frontal moisture risks cooler 16-17°C readings (22% combined). Key variables include ridge strength, diurnal solar heating, and wind shear; high uncertainty stems from 4-5 day model spread, with official AEMET updates tomorrow potentially shifting trader sentiment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Madrid le 22 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Madrid le 22 mars ?
19°C 32%
18°C 20%
20°C 18%
17°C 11%
14°C ou moins
1%
15°C
3%
16°C
9%
17°C
11%
18°C
20%
19°C
32%
20°C
18%
21°C
6%
22°C
3%
23°C
2%
24°C ou plus
2%
19°C 32%
18°C 20%
20°C 18%
17°C 11%
14°C ou moins
1%
15°C
3%
16°C
9%
17°C
11%
18°C
20%
19°C
32%
20°C
18%
21°C
6%
22°C
3%
23°C
2%
24°C ou plus
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 18, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicate a high-pressure ridge over Iberia favoring a peak temperature of 19°C in Madrid on March 22, driving the market's leading 30.5% implied probability, with nearby outcomes like 18°C (19.5%) and 20°C (18%) reflecting model consensus amid mild southerly flows. Historical March highs average 17-18°C at Barajas Airport, but recent mild Atlantic air masses and minimal cloud cover elevate warmer odds, while lingering frontal moisture risks cooler 16-17°C readings (22% combined). Key variables include ridge strength, diurnal solar heating, and wind shear; high uncertainty stems from 4-5 day model spread, with official AEMET updates tomorrow potentially shifting trader sentiment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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