Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 33°C (37%) and 32°C (34.5%) as Singapore's highest temperature on March 26, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicating peak afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 33s amid persistent dry conditions from lingering El Niño influences. Recent NEA updates highlight low cloud cover probabilities (20-30%) and weak sea breezes, boosting radiative heating and urban heat island effects that could push temperatures 1-2°C above morning baselines of 28-29°C. Differentiating factors include model spread on convective showers—minimal per GFS ensemble (10% chance post-2pm)—favoring 33°C over 32°C, while historical March 26 data (avg. 32.2°C, std. dev. 0.9°C) tempers 34°C+ odds despite recent heatwaves exceeding 35°C. Uncertainty peaks around 4-6pm resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Singapore on March 26?
Highest temperature in Singapore on March 26?
33°C 38%
32°C 35%
34°C 14%
31°C 9%
$29,464 Vol.
$29,464 Vol.
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
3%
31°C
9%
32°C
35%
33°C
38%
34°C
14%
35°C
4%
36°C or higher
2%
33°C 38%
32°C 35%
34°C 14%
31°C 9%
$29,464 Vol.
$29,464 Vol.
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
3%
31°C
9%
32°C
35%
33°C
38%
34°C
14%
35°C
4%
36°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Singapore Changi Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 33°C (37%) and 32°C (34.5%) as Singapore's highest temperature on March 26, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicating peak afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 33s amid persistent dry conditions from lingering El Niño influences. Recent NEA updates highlight low cloud cover probabilities (20-30%) and weak sea breezes, boosting radiative heating and urban heat island effects that could push temperatures 1-2°C above morning baselines of 28-29°C. Differentiating factors include model spread on convective showers—minimal per GFS ensemble (10% chance post-2pm)—favoring 33°C over 32°C, while historical March 26 data (avg. 32.2°C, std. dev. 0.9°C) tempers 34°C+ odds despite recent heatwaves exceeding 35°C. Uncertainty peaks around 4-6pm resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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