Trader consensus favors a 16°C high in Tel Aviv on March 26 at 36% implied probability, closely trailed by 17°C at 26.5%, propelled by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on 16-17°C peaks amid a low-pressure trough ushering cooler northerly winds and partial cloud cover over the eastern Mediterranean. This setup curbs daytime heating via reduced insolation, diverging from the late-March climatological average near 20°C. Differentiating factors include GFS's slight warm bias toward 17°C versus ECMWF's cooler 16°C signal, with model spread amplified by coastal sea breeze effects; traders eye 12z updates for resolution as afternoon clearing could nudge the diurnal maximum.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 26?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 26?
16°C 36%
17°C 29%
15°C 14%
18°C 10%
11°C or below
1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
3%
14°C
3%
15°C
14%
16°C
36%
17°C
29%
18°C
10%
19°C
3%
20°C
4%
21°C or higher
<1%
16°C 36%
17°C 29%
15°C 14%
18°C 10%
11°C or below
1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
3%
14°C
3%
15°C
14%
16°C
36%
17°C
29%
18°C
10%
19°C
3%
20°C
4%
21°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a 16°C high in Tel Aviv on March 26 at 36% implied probability, closely trailed by 17°C at 26.5%, propelled by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on 16-17°C peaks amid a low-pressure trough ushering cooler northerly winds and partial cloud cover over the eastern Mediterranean. This setup curbs daytime heating via reduced insolation, diverging from the late-March climatological average near 20°C. Differentiating factors include GFS's slight warm bias toward 17°C versus ECMWF's cooler 16°C signal, with model spread amplified by coastal sea breeze effects; traders eye 12z updates for resolution as afternoon clearing could nudge the diurnal maximum.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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