Polymarket traders assign a 57% implied probability to U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting optimism beyond economist consensus forecasts of 2.3–2.4%, buoyed by anticipated deregulation, fiscal easing, and private investment surges under the incoming administration. The Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 9 third estimate revised Q4 2025 growth down to a subdued 0.5% annualized rate—well below prior quarters—yet March FOMC median projections hold at 2.4% for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 basis, aligning with IMF's April outlook amid resilient consumer spending and labor markets. Lower-bucket odds remain slim due to AI-driven productivity gains offsetting tariff risks, with the Q1 2026 advance GDP release due April 30 as the next key catalyst.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में जीडीपी की वृद्धि
2026 में जीडीपी की वृद्धि
>2.5% 55%
1.5–2.0% 11.6%
<0.5% 10.1%
2.0–2.5% 10%
$26,701 वॉल्यूम
$26,701 वॉल्यूम
29 जन, 2027
<0.5%
10%
0.5–1.0%
5%
1.0–1.5%
8%
1.5–2.0%
12%
2.0–2.5%
10%
>2.5%
55%
>2.5% 55%
1.5–2.0% 11.6%
<0.5% 10.1%
2.0–2.5% 10%
$26,701 वॉल्यूम
$26,701 वॉल्यूम
29 जन, 2027
<0.5%
$3,752 वॉल्यूम
10%
0.5–1.0%
$15,052 वॉल्यूम
5%
1.0–1.5%
$1,460 वॉल्यूम
8%
1.5–2.0%
$1,277 वॉल्यूम
12%
2.0–2.5%
$1,338 वॉल्यूम
10%
>2.5%
$3,820 वॉल्यूम
55%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders assign a 57% implied probability to U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting optimism beyond economist consensus forecasts of 2.3–2.4%, buoyed by anticipated deregulation, fiscal easing, and private investment surges under the incoming administration. The Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 9 third estimate revised Q4 2025 growth down to a subdued 0.5% annualized rate—well below prior quarters—yet March FOMC median projections hold at 2.4% for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 basis, aligning with IMF's April outlook amid resilient consumer spending and labor markets. Lower-bucket odds remain slim due to AI-driven productivity gains offsetting tariff risks, with the Q1 2026 advance GDP release due April 30 as the next key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$26,701समाप्ति तिथि
29 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders assign a 57% implied probability to U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting optimism beyond economist consensus forecasts of 2.3–2.4%, buoyed by anticipated deregulation, fiscal easing, and private investment surges under the incoming administration. The Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 9 third estimate revised Q4 2025 growth down to a subdued 0.5% annualized rate—well below prior quarters—yet March FOMC median projections hold at 2.4% for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 basis, aligning with IMF's April outlook amid resilient consumer spending and labor markets. Lower-bucket odds remain slim due to AI-driven productivity gains offsetting tariff risks, with the Q1 2026 advance GDP release due April 30 as the next key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
वॉल्यूम
$26,701समाप्ति तिथि
29 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 57% implied probability to U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting optimism beyond economist consensus forecasts of 2.3–2.4%, buoyed by anticipated deregulation, fiscal easing, and private investment surges under the incoming administration. The Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 9 third estimate revised Q4 2025 growth down to a subdued 0.5% annualized rate—well below prior quarters—yet March FOMC median projections hold at 2.4% for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 basis, aligning with IMF's April outlook amid resilient consumer spending and labor markets. Lower-bucket odds remain slim due to AI-driven productivity gains offsetting tariff risks, with the Q1 2026 advance GDP release due April 30 as the next key catalyst.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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