Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley's commanding position in the Oregon U.S. Senate race, bolstered by the state's strong partisan lean—Kamala Harris won by 14 points in 2024—and his $6 million cash-on-hand advantage as of late 2025, drives trader consensus to 93% for a Democratic victory. Merkley, seeking a fourth term after winning 57% in 2020, faces a minor Democratic primary challenger, while Republicans hold a crowded primary on May 19, 2026, featuring past nominee Jo Rae Perkins and state Senator David Brock Smith, neither viewed as strong general-election threats per historical precedents. Scenarios to challenge this include a surprise GOP nominee surge with national midterm tailwinds, Merkley scandal, or health issues, though Cook Political rates it Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयानया
नया
3 नव, 2026
Democrat
93%
Republican
7%
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
Democrat
$1,524 वॉल्यूम
93%
Republican
$1,035 वॉल्यूम
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley's commanding position in the Oregon U.S. Senate race, bolstered by the state's strong partisan lean—Kamala Harris won by 14 points in 2024—and his $6 million cash-on-hand advantage as of late 2025, drives trader consensus to 93% for a Democratic victory. Merkley, seeking a fourth term after winning 57% in 2020, faces a minor Democratic primary challenger, while Republicans hold a crowded primary on May 19, 2026, featuring past nominee Jo Rae Perkins and state Senator David Brock Smith, neither viewed as strong general-election threats per historical precedents. Scenarios to challenge this include a surprise GOP nominee surge with national midterm tailwinds, Merkley scandal, or health issues, though Cook Political rates it Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
बाज़ार खुला: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$2,559समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley's commanding position in the Oregon U.S. Senate race, bolstered by the state's strong partisan lean—Kamala Harris won by 14 points in 2024—and his $6 million cash-on-hand advantage as of late 2025, drives trader consensus to 93% for a Democratic victory. Merkley, seeking a fourth term after winning 57% in 2020, faces a minor Democratic primary challenger, while Republicans hold a crowded primary on May 19, 2026, featuring past nominee Jo Rae Perkins and state Senator David Brock Smith, neither viewed as strong general-election threats per historical precedents. Scenarios to challenge this include a surprise GOP nominee surge with national midterm tailwinds, Merkley scandal, or health issues, though Cook Political rates it Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
वॉल्यूम
$2,559समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley's commanding position in the Oregon U.S. Senate race, bolstered by the state's strong partisan lean—Kamala Harris won by 14 points in 2024—and his $6 million cash-on-hand advantage as of late 2025, drives trader consensus to 93% for a Democratic victory. Merkley, seeking a fourth term after winning 57% in 2020, faces a minor Democratic primary challenger, while Republicans hold a crowded primary on May 19, 2026, featuring past nominee Jo Rae Perkins and state Senator David Brock Smith, neither viewed as strong general-election threats per historical precedents. Scenarios to challenge this include a surprise GOP nominee surge with national midterm tailwinds, Merkley scandal, or health issues, though Cook Political rates it Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न