Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) determination that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible, as they would require fault ruptures exceeding 1,000 kilometers—longer than any known tectonic feature on Earth, including major subduction zones. The largest instrumentally recorded event remains the 1960 Valdivia, Chile, megathrust quake at magnitude 9.5, with no quakes reaching 9.5 since and recent 2025–2026 activity topping out below magnitude 8.9 (e.g., a July 2025 Kamchatka event). USGS global seismic monitoring shows no precursors for unprecedented events, and with under nine months until 2027, the market-implied 95.8% "No" probability underscores this geophysical barrier, barring implausible scale redefinitions or extraterrestrial impacts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato10,0 o superiore prima del 2027?
10,0 o superiore prima del 2027?
Sì
$555,530 Vol.
$555,530 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$555,530 Vol.
$555,530 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) determination that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible, as they would require fault ruptures exceeding 1,000 kilometers—longer than any known tectonic feature on Earth, including major subduction zones. The largest instrumentally recorded event remains the 1960 Valdivia, Chile, megathrust quake at magnitude 9.5, with no quakes reaching 9.5 since and recent 2025–2026 activity topping out below magnitude 8.9 (e.g., a July 2025 Kamchatka event). USGS global seismic monitoring shows no precursors for unprecedented events, and with under nine months until 2027, the market-implied 95.8% "No" probability underscores this geophysical barrier, barring implausible scale redefinitions or extraterrestrial impacts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercato aperto: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$555,530Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) determination that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible, as they would require fault ruptures exceeding 1,000 kilometers—longer than any known tectonic feature on Earth, including major subduction zones. The largest instrumentally recorded event remains the 1960 Valdivia, Chile, megathrust quake at magnitude 9.5, with no quakes reaching 9.5 since and recent 2025–2026 activity topping out below magnitude 8.9 (e.g., a July 2025 Kamchatka event). USGS global seismic monitoring shows no precursors for unprecedented events, and with under nine months until 2027, the market-implied 95.8% "No" probability underscores this geophysical barrier, barring implausible scale redefinitions or extraterrestrial impacts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$555,530Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) determination that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible, as they would require fault ruptures exceeding 1,000 kilometers—longer than any known tectonic feature on Earth, including major subduction zones. The largest instrumentally recorded event remains the 1960 Valdivia, Chile, megathrust quake at magnitude 9.5, with no quakes reaching 9.5 since and recent 2025–2026 activity topping out below magnitude 8.9 (e.g., a July 2025 Kamchatka event). USGS global seismic monitoring shows no precursors for unprecedented events, and with under nine months until 2027, the market-implied 95.8% "No" probability underscores this geophysical barrier, barring implausible scale redefinitions or extraterrestrial impacts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti