Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns CDU a 57.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, driven by its consistent poll lead at 21-23% in recent surveys amid a fragmented opposition field. The latest INSA poll (April 7-14) shows CDU at 21%, ahead of tied SPD and AfD at 17%, Grüne and Die Linke at 15%, with minimal shifts from February amid stable black-red coalition governance under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner. National CDU momentum under Chancellor Merz, including a March Rhineland-Palatinate state win displacing SPD after 35 years, bolsters incumbency edge, though tight margins leave room for shifts from campaign events or coalition negotiations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni statali di Berlino
Vincitore delle elezioni statali di Berlino
CDU 57%
Verdi 15.0%
Linke 12%
AfD 9.2%
$2,572,559 Vol.
$2,572,559 Vol.
20 set 2026
CDU
57%
Verdi
15%
Linke
12%
AfD
9%
SPD
7%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 57%
Verdi 15.0%
Linke 12%
AfD 9.2%
$2,572,559 Vol.
$2,572,559 Vol.
20 set 2026
CDU
$15,140 Vol.
57%
Verdi
$27,805 Vol.
15%
Linke
$11,555 Vol.
12%
AfD
$2,187,196 Vol.
9%
SPD
$287,315 Vol.
7%
BSW
$26,247 Vol.
1%
FDP
$10,274 Vol.
<1%
FW
$7,026 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns CDU a 57.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, driven by its consistent poll lead at 21-23% in recent surveys amid a fragmented opposition field. The latest INSA poll (April 7-14) shows CDU at 21%, ahead of tied SPD and AfD at 17%, Grüne and Die Linke at 15%, with minimal shifts from February amid stable black-red coalition governance under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner. National CDU momentum under Chancellor Merz, including a March Rhineland-Palatinate state win displacing SPD after 35 years, bolsters incumbency edge, though tight margins leave room for shifts from campaign events or coalition negotiations.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Mercato aperto: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$2,572,559Data di fine
20 set 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns CDU a 57.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, driven by its consistent poll lead at 21-23% in recent surveys amid a fragmented opposition field. The latest INSA poll (April 7-14) shows CDU at 21%, ahead of tied SPD and AfD at 17%, Grüne and Die Linke at 15%, with minimal shifts from February amid stable black-red coalition governance under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner. National CDU momentum under Chancellor Merz, including a March Rhineland-Palatinate state win displacing SPD after 35 years, bolsters incumbency edge, though tight margins leave room for shifts from campaign events or coalition negotiations.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$2,572,559Data di fine
20 set 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns CDU a 57.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, driven by its consistent poll lead at 21-23% in recent surveys amid a fragmented opposition field. The latest INSA poll (April 7-14) shows CDU at 21%, ahead of tied SPD and AfD at 17%, Grüne and Die Linke at 15%, with minimal shifts from February amid stable black-red coalition governance under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner. National CDU momentum under Chancellor Merz, including a March Rhineland-Palatinate state win displacing SPD after 35 years, bolsters incumbency edge, though tight margins leave room for shifts from campaign events or coalition negotiations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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