Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 52.5% implied probability for zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) in 2026, driven by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of 47 total eruptions to date—mostly VEI ≤3 effusive or Strombolian events like Kīlauea’s ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu episodes and Mayon’s ash emissions—without any reaching the ≥0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent ejecta threshold for VEI ≥4. Through mid-April, roughly 30% of the year has passed event-free, aligning with historical global rates of about 0.5–1 such events annually from GVP records. Recent weekly reports highlight unrest at Semeru and Santiaguito with pyroclastic flows, but no intensification signals; USGS and GVP monitoring continues, with next updates potentially shifting odds if escalation occurs at restless sites like Hekla.