Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero large volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026 at 52.5% implied probability, reflecting the complete absence of such events through mid-April despite 47 confirmed lower-intensity eruptions worldwide, as documented by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS. All ongoing activity—such as Kīlauea's episodic Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining, Semeru's pyroclastic flows, and Fuego's strombolian blasts—remains at routine alert levels (Normal to Advisory/Yellow), with no precursory seismic unrest or deformation signaling VEI ≥4 potential at monitored systems. Historically, about three VEI ≥4 events occur annually, but their clustered nature permits quiet years; current low-threat profiles across global hotspots support below-average expectations for the remaining months, pending weekly GVP/USGS updates.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuante grandi eruzioni vulcaniche (vei ≥4) nel 2026?
Quante grandi eruzioni vulcaniche (vei ≥4) nel 2026?
0 53%
1 36%
2 5.8%
3 1.8%
$988,115 Vol.
$988,115 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0
53%
1
36%
2
6%
3
2%
4
<1%
5+
1%
0 53%
1 36%
2 5.8%
3 1.8%
$988,115 Vol.
$988,115 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0
$446,751 Vol.
53%
1
$249,985 Vol.
36%
2
$21,796 Vol.
6%
3
$10,394 Vol.
2%
4
$15,476 Vol.
<1%
5+
$243,713 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero large volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026 at 52.5% implied probability, reflecting the complete absence of such events through mid-April despite 47 confirmed lower-intensity eruptions worldwide, as documented by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS. All ongoing activity—such as Kīlauea's episodic Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining, Semeru's pyroclastic flows, and Fuego's strombolian blasts—remains at routine alert levels (Normal to Advisory/Yellow), with no precursory seismic unrest or deformation signaling VEI ≥4 potential at monitored systems. Historically, about three VEI ≥4 events occur annually, but their clustered nature permits quiet years; current low-threat profiles across global hotspots support below-average expectations for the remaining months, pending weekly GVP/USGS updates.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$988,115Data di fine
31 mar 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero large volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026 at 52.5% implied probability, reflecting the complete absence of such events through mid-April despite 47 confirmed lower-intensity eruptions worldwide, as documented by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS. All ongoing activity—such as Kīlauea's episodic Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining, Semeru's pyroclastic flows, and Fuego's strombolian blasts—remains at routine alert levels (Normal to Advisory/Yellow), with no precursory seismic unrest or deformation signaling VEI ≥4 potential at monitored systems. Historically, about three VEI ≥4 events occur annually, but their clustered nature permits quiet years; current low-threat profiles across global hotspots support below-average expectations for the remaining months, pending weekly GVP/USGS updates.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$988,115Data di fine
31 mar 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero large volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026 at 52.5% implied probability, reflecting the complete absence of such events through mid-April despite 47 confirmed lower-intensity eruptions worldwide, as documented by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS. All ongoing activity—such as Kīlauea's episodic Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining, Semeru's pyroclastic flows, and Fuego's strombolian blasts—remains at routine alert levels (Normal to Advisory/Yellow), with no precursory seismic unrest or deformation signaling VEI ≥4 potential at monitored systems. Historically, about three VEI ≥4 events occur annually, but their clustered nature permits quiet years; current low-threat profiles across global hotspots support below-average expectations for the remaining months, pending weekly GVP/USGS updates.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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