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Politica·Elezioni Globali

How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?

Market icon
Politica·Elezioni Globali

How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?

13–15 45%

19–21 44%

16–18 20.0%

22+ 7.1%

Polymarket

$7,735 Vol.

13–15 45%

19–21 44%

16–18 20.0%

22+ 7.1%

Polymarket

$7,735 Vol.

<10

$241 Vol.

<1%

10–12

$99 Vol.

37%

13–15

$0 Vol.

45%

16–18

$7,139 Vol.

18%

19–21

$37 Vol.

44%

22+

$220 Vol.

20%

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Trader consensus prices IUML seats tightly between 13–15 (43%) and 19–21 (42%) following April 9 polling with 78% turnout, as pre-poll surveys like Manorama News–C-Voter project UDF dominance in IUML strongholds such as Malappuram (14–16 of 16 seats) but overlapping LDF–UDF totals of 57–81 each signal uncertainty. IUML contests 27 seats within the UDF alliance, expected to secure most in Muslim-majority northern districts like Manjeri and Mankada per Mathrubhumi–CORE leads, yet vulnerable in contests like Azhikode and Kalamasery where LDF holds edges. NDA's potential 1–5 seats risks vote splits; May 4 counting and any hung assembly dynamics could separate outcomes based on UDF's northern sweep versus LDF resilience.

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala.

If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Volume
$7,735
Data di fine
9 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 4:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Trader consensus prices IUML seats tightly between 13–15 (43%) and 19–21 (42%) following April 9 polling with 78% turnout, as pre-poll surveys like Manorama News–C-Voter project UDF dominance in IUML strongholds such as Malappuram (14–16 of 16 seats) but overlapping LDF–UDF totals of 57–81 each signal uncertainty. IUML contests 27 seats within the UDF alliance, expected to secure most in Muslim-majority northern districts like Manjeri and Mankada per Mathrubhumi–CORE leads, yet vulnerable in contests like Azhikode and Kalamasery where LDF holds edges. NDA's potential 1–5 seats risks vote splits; May 4 counting and any hung assembly dynamics could separate outcomes based on UDF's northern sweep versus LDF resilience.

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala.

If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Volume
$7,735
Data di fine
9 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 4:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).

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Domande frequenti

"How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 6 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "13–15" a 45%, seguito da "19–21" a 44%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 45¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 45% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Dec 23, 2025. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?", esplora i 6 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?" è "13–15" a 45%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 45% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "19–21" a 44%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.