Polling in Kerala's 140-seat Legislative Assembly on April 9 drew a high 78% voter turnout, fueling trader consensus pricing CPI(M)-led LDF at 53% implied probability to form the next government ahead of INC-led UDF at 44.5%, with vote counting set for May 4. Mixed pre-poll surveys, including Manorama-C Voter projecting UDF 69-81 seats and LDF 57-69 alongside others showing neck-and-neck contests, underscore the tight race driven by LDF's incumbency advantages in southern districts and welfare schemes offsetting anti-incumbency from unemployment and economic pressures, while UDF eyes northern consolidation among Muslims and Christians. NDA's minor spoiler role in battlegrounds like Thrissur and Palakkad could tip balances; early trends or post-poll coalitions may create separation in this unprecedented LDF hat-trick bid.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni dell'Assemblea legislativa del Kerala
Vincitore delle elezioni dell'Assemblea legislativa del Kerala
CPI(M) 53%
INC 45%
BSP <1%
CPI <1%
$280,262 Vol.
$280,262 Vol.
9 apr 2026
CPI(M)
53%
INC
45%
BSP
<1%
CPI
<1%
JD(S)
<1%
RSP
<1%
KEC(M)
<1%
BJP
<1%
NCP
<1%
IUML
<1%
CPI(M) 53%
INC 45%
BSP <1%
CPI <1%
$280,262 Vol.
$280,262 Vol.
9 apr 2026
CPI(M)
$35,262 Vol.
53%
INC
$34,778 Vol.
45%
BSP
$12,297 Vol.
<1%
CPI
$28,084 Vol.
<1%
JD(S)
$24,403 Vol.
<1%
RSP
$13,090 Vol.
<1%
KEC(M)
$13,613 Vol.
<1%
BJP
$57,830 Vol.
<1%
NCP
$45,976 Vol.
<1%
IUML
$14,939 Vol.
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Polling in Kerala's 140-seat Legislative Assembly on April 9 drew a high 78% voter turnout, fueling trader consensus pricing CPI(M)-led LDF at 53% implied probability to form the next government ahead of INC-led UDF at 44.5%, with vote counting set for May 4. Mixed pre-poll surveys, including Manorama-C Voter projecting UDF 69-81 seats and LDF 57-69 alongside others showing neck-and-neck contests, underscore the tight race driven by LDF's incumbency advantages in southern districts and welfare schemes offsetting anti-incumbency from unemployment and economic pressures, while UDF eyes northern consolidation among Muslims and Christians. NDA's minor spoiler role in battlegrounds like Thrissur and Palakkad could tip balances; early trends or post-poll coalitions may create separation in this unprecedented LDF hat-trick bid.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Mercato aperto: Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$280,262Data di fine
9 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Polling in Kerala's 140-seat Legislative Assembly on April 9 drew a high 78% voter turnout, fueling trader consensus pricing CPI(M)-led LDF at 53% implied probability to form the next government ahead of INC-led UDF at 44.5%, with vote counting set for May 4. Mixed pre-poll surveys, including Manorama-C Voter projecting UDF 69-81 seats and LDF 57-69 alongside others showing neck-and-neck contests, underscore the tight race driven by LDF's incumbency advantages in southern districts and welfare schemes offsetting anti-incumbency from unemployment and economic pressures, while UDF eyes northern consolidation among Muslims and Christians. NDA's minor spoiler role in battlegrounds like Thrissur and Palakkad could tip balances; early trends or post-poll coalitions may create separation in this unprecedented LDF hat-trick bid.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Volume
$280,262Data di fine
9 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polling in Kerala's 140-seat Legislative Assembly on April 9 drew a high 78% voter turnout, fueling trader consensus pricing CPI(M)-led LDF at 53% implied probability to form the next government ahead of INC-led UDF at 44.5%, with vote counting set for May 4. Mixed pre-poll surveys, including Manorama-C Voter projecting UDF 69-81 seats and LDF 57-69 alongside others showing neck-and-neck contests, underscore the tight race driven by LDF's incumbency advantages in southern districts and welfare schemes offsetting anti-incumbency from unemployment and economic pressures, while UDF eyes northern consolidation among Muslims and Christians. NDA's minor spoiler role in battlegrounds like Thrissur and Palakkad could tip balances; early trends or post-poll coalitions may create separation in this unprecedented LDF hat-trick bid.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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