Post-polling analysis of Kerala's April 9 Legislative Assembly election, with a record 79.63% voter turnout—the highest since 1987—has fueled trader consensus giving CPI(M)-led LDF a slim 53% implied probability over INC-led UDF at 46%, reflecting pre-election opinion polls showing neck-and-neck races (e.g., LDF projected 57-69 seats vs. UDF 69-81 in some surveys) and a viral exit poll favoring LDF 66-62. The contest remains tight due to LDF's incumbency advantages under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan seeking a rare third term, balanced against UDF's local body gains, anti-incumbency on debt and welfare, and NDA's marginal vote splits in swing seats. Postal ballot counts and May 4 vote tally could decisively shift the majority threshold of 71 seats in 140 constituencies.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni dell'Assemblea legislativa del Kerala
Vincitore delle elezioni dell'Assemblea legislativa del Kerala
CPI(M) 53%
INC 45%
BSP <1%
CPI <1%
$280,272 Vol.
$280,272 Vol.
9 apr 2026
CPI(M)
53%
INC
45%
BSP
<1%
CPI
<1%
JD(S)
<1%
RSP
<1%
KEC(M)
<1%
BJP
<1%
NCP
<1%
IUML
<1%
CPI(M) 53%
INC 45%
BSP <1%
CPI <1%
$280,272 Vol.
$280,272 Vol.
9 apr 2026
CPI(M)
$35,262 Vol.
53%
INC
$34,778 Vol.
45%
BSP
$12,297 Vol.
<1%
CPI
$28,084 Vol.
<1%
JD(S)
$24,403 Vol.
<1%
RSP
$13,090 Vol.
<1%
KEC(M)
$13,613 Vol.
<1%
BJP
$57,830 Vol.
<1%
NCP
$45,976 Vol.
<1%
IUML
$14,939 Vol.
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Post-polling analysis of Kerala's April 9 Legislative Assembly election, with a record 79.63% voter turnout—the highest since 1987—has fueled trader consensus giving CPI(M)-led LDF a slim 53% implied probability over INC-led UDF at 46%, reflecting pre-election opinion polls showing neck-and-neck races (e.g., LDF projected 57-69 seats vs. UDF 69-81 in some surveys) and a viral exit poll favoring LDF 66-62. The contest remains tight due to LDF's incumbency advantages under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan seeking a rare third term, balanced against UDF's local body gains, anti-incumbency on debt and welfare, and NDA's marginal vote splits in swing seats. Postal ballot counts and May 4 vote tally could decisively shift the majority threshold of 71 seats in 140 constituencies.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Mercato aperto: Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$280,272Data di fine
9 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Post-polling analysis of Kerala's April 9 Legislative Assembly election, with a record 79.63% voter turnout—the highest since 1987—has fueled trader consensus giving CPI(M)-led LDF a slim 53% implied probability over INC-led UDF at 46%, reflecting pre-election opinion polls showing neck-and-neck races (e.g., LDF projected 57-69 seats vs. UDF 69-81 in some surveys) and a viral exit poll favoring LDF 66-62. The contest remains tight due to LDF's incumbency advantages under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan seeking a rare third term, balanced against UDF's local body gains, anti-incumbency on debt and welfare, and NDA's marginal vote splits in swing seats. Postal ballot counts and May 4 vote tally could decisively shift the majority threshold of 71 seats in 140 constituencies.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Volume
$280,272Data di fine
9 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Post-polling analysis of Kerala's April 9 Legislative Assembly election, with a record 79.63% voter turnout—the highest since 1987—has fueled trader consensus giving CPI(M)-led LDF a slim 53% implied probability over INC-led UDF at 46%, reflecting pre-election opinion polls showing neck-and-neck races (e.g., LDF projected 57-69 seats vs. UDF 69-81 in some surveys) and a viral exit poll favoring LDF 66-62. The contest remains tight due to LDF's incumbency advantages under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan seeking a rare third term, balanced against UDF's local body gains, anti-incumbency on debt and welfare, and NDA's marginal vote splits in swing seats. Postal ballot counts and May 4 vote tally could decisively shift the majority threshold of 71 seats in 140 constituencies.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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