With over 91% of actas processed by Peru's National Electoral Processes Office (ONPE) as of April 16, Keiko Fujimori holds a clear lead for first place in the April 12 first-round presidential election, leaving a tight contest between Rafael López Aliaga and Roberto Sánchez Palomino for the second spot that determines runoff eligibility. Traders price López Aliaga as the probable third-place finisher at 60% implied probability, reflecting his early polling strength in urban areas like Lima and initial exit poll showings around 11%, but Sánchez's recent surge—fueled by rural and leftist voter blocs—has narrowed the gap to mere thousands of votes. Logistical ballot delays extended voting into April 13, slowing the count amid unsubstantiated fraud claims, with remaining urban precincts unlikely to fully reverse Sánchez's momentum yet keeping the outcome contested. A June 7 runoff looms between the top two.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPrimo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Perù: 3° posto
Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Perù: 3° posto
Rafael López Aliaga 60.0%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino 38.5%
Jorge Nieto <1%
Ricardo Belmont <1%
$559,304 Vol.
$559,304 Vol.
Rafael López Aliaga
60%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
38%
Jorge Nieto
<1%
Ricardo Belmont
<1%
Keiko Fujimori
<1%
José Luna
<1%
Fiorella Molinelli
<1%
Yonhy Lescano
<1%
Wolfgang Grozo
<1%
Fernando Olivera
<1%
Carlos Álvarez
<1%
Alfonso López Chau
<1%
George Forsyth
<1%
Enrique Valderrama
<1%
Mesías Guevara
<1%
César Acuña
<1%
Roberto Chiabra
<1%
Carlos Espá
<1%
Marisol Pérez Tello
<1%
Mario Vizcarra
<1%
Vladimir Cerrón
<1%
José Williams
<1%
Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 60.0%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino 38.5%
Jorge Nieto <1%
Ricardo Belmont <1%
$559,304 Vol.
$559,304 Vol.
Rafael López Aliaga
60%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
38%
Jorge Nieto
<1%
Ricardo Belmont
<1%
Keiko Fujimori
<1%
José Luna
<1%
Fiorella Molinelli
<1%
Yonhy Lescano
<1%
Wolfgang Grozo
<1%
Fernando Olivera
<1%
Carlos Álvarez
<1%
Alfonso López Chau
<1%
George Forsyth
<1%
Enrique Valderrama
<1%
Mesías Guevara
<1%
César Acuña
<1%
Roberto Chiabra
<1%
Carlos Espá
<1%
Marisol Pérez Tello
<1%
Mario Vizcarra
<1%
Vladimir Cerrón
<1%
José Williams
<1%
Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Mercato aperto: Mar 20, 2026, 10:41 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...With over 91% of actas processed by Peru's National Electoral Processes Office (ONPE) as of April 16, Keiko Fujimori holds a clear lead for first place in the April 12 first-round presidential election, leaving a tight contest between Rafael López Aliaga and Roberto Sánchez Palomino for the second spot that determines runoff eligibility. Traders price López Aliaga as the probable third-place finisher at 60% implied probability, reflecting his early polling strength in urban areas like Lima and initial exit poll showings around 11%, but Sánchez's recent surge—fueled by rural and leftist voter blocs—has narrowed the gap to mere thousands of votes. Logistical ballot delays extended voting into April 13, slowing the count amid unsubstantiated fraud claims, with remaining urban precincts unlikely to fully reverse Sánchez's momentum yet keeping the outcome contested. A June 7 runoff looms between the top two.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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