Swedish Social Democratic Party leads trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in the September 13, 2026 Riksdag election, driven by consistent double-digit advantages in recent vote intention polls, including Verian's April 5 survey showing S at 32.7% versus Sweden Democrats at 20% and Moderates at 16.8%. Polling averages from Politico and others confirm S's stable 32-35% share over the past month, outpacing rivals amid the Tidö government's struggles despite pacts like Liberals' March agreement with Sweden Democrats and Prime Minister Kristersson's April push for closer right-wing ties. Proportional representation favors the top vote-getter, but coalition negotiations post-election could influence government formation; upcoming debates and economic data may test this frontrunner status.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni parlamentari svedesi
Vincitore delle elezioni parlamentari svedesi
Partito Socialdemocratico Svedese (S) 89%
Partito Moderato (M) 5.5%
Democratici Svedesi (SD) 5.0%
Partito Verde (MP) <1%
$1,085,206 Vol.
$1,085,206 Vol.
13 set 2026
Partito Socialdemocratico Svedese (S)
89%
Partito Moderato (M)
6%
Democratici Svedesi (SD)
5%
Partito Verde (MP)
1%
Partito di Centro (C)
<1%
Partito della Sinistra (V)
<1%
Coalizione dei Cittadini (MED)
<1%
Democratici Cristiani (KD)
<1%
Liberali (L)
<1%
Partito Socialdemocratico Svedese (S) 89%
Partito Moderato (M) 5.5%
Democratici Svedesi (SD) 5.0%
Partito Verde (MP) <1%
$1,085,206 Vol.
$1,085,206 Vol.
13 set 2026
Partito Socialdemocratico Svedese (S)
$31,681 Vol.
89%
Partito Moderato (M)
$377,273 Vol.
6%
Democratici Svedesi (SD)
$509,329 Vol.
5%
Partito Verde (MP)
$93,224 Vol.
1%
Partito di Centro (C)
$16,456 Vol.
<1%
Partito della Sinistra (V)
$14,895 Vol.
<1%
Coalizione dei Cittadini (MED)
$13,438 Vol.
<1%
Democratici Cristiani (KD)
$14,382 Vol.
<1%
Liberali (L)
$14,529 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Swedish Social Democratic Party leads trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in the September 13, 2026 Riksdag election, driven by consistent double-digit advantages in recent vote intention polls, including Verian's April 5 survey showing S at 32.7% versus Sweden Democrats at 20% and Moderates at 16.8%. Polling averages from Politico and others confirm S's stable 32-35% share over the past month, outpacing rivals amid the Tidö government's struggles despite pacts like Liberals' March agreement with Sweden Democrats and Prime Minister Kristersson's April push for closer right-wing ties. Proportional representation favors the top vote-getter, but coalition negotiations post-election could influence government formation; upcoming debates and economic data may test this frontrunner status.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Mercato aperto: Dec 4, 2025, 11:45 AM ET
Volume
$1,085,206Data di fine
13 set 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 4, 2025, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Swedish Social Democratic Party leads trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in the September 13, 2026 Riksdag election, driven by consistent double-digit advantages in recent vote intention polls, including Verian's April 5 survey showing S at 32.7% versus Sweden Democrats at 20% and Moderates at 16.8%. Polling averages from Politico and others confirm S's stable 32-35% share over the past month, outpacing rivals amid the Tidö government's struggles despite pacts like Liberals' March agreement with Sweden Democrats and Prime Minister Kristersson's April push for closer right-wing ties. Proportional representation favors the top vote-getter, but coalition negotiations post-election could influence government formation; upcoming debates and economic data may test this frontrunner status.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$1,085,206Data di fine
13 set 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 4, 2025, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Swedish Social Democratic Party leads trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in the September 13, 2026 Riksdag election, driven by consistent double-digit advantages in recent vote intention polls, including Verian's April 5 survey showing S at 32.7% versus Sweden Democrats at 20% and Moderates at 16.8%. Polling averages from Politico and others confirm S's stable 32-35% share over the past month, outpacing rivals amid the Tidö government's struggles despite pacts like Liberals' March agreement with Sweden Democrats and Prime Minister Kristersson's April push for closer right-wing ties. Proportional representation favors the top vote-getter, but coalition negotiations post-election could influence government formation; upcoming debates and economic data may test this frontrunner status.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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