Traders assign a 96.3% implied probability that China will not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the end of 2026, reflecting the short remaining timeframe and absence of detectable large-scale amphibious preparations or force concentrations. Beijing continues to rely on gray-zone tactics such as routine aircraft and coast guard patrols around the island, expanded maritime presence east of Taiwan, and political interference ahead of local elections, while both sides pursue defense budget increases and civil resilience drills without crossing into open conflict. Ongoing diplomatic channels between Washington and Beijing, including recent leader-level contacts, further reduce near-term escalation risks. A decisive shift would require verifiable signs of imminent mobilization that have not materialized in the past several months.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa Cina invaderà Taiwan entro la fine del 2026?
La Cina invaderà Taiwan entro la fine del 2026?
Sì
$40,020,761 Vol.
$40,020,761 Vol.
Sì
$40,020,761 Vol.
$40,020,761 Vol.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Risolutore
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Risolutore
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Traders assign a 96.3% implied probability that China will not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the end of 2026, reflecting the short remaining timeframe and absence of detectable large-scale amphibious preparations or force concentrations. Beijing continues to rely on gray-zone tactics such as routine aircraft and coast guard patrols around the island, expanded maritime presence east of Taiwan, and political interference ahead of local elections, while both sides pursue defense budget increases and civil resilience drills without crossing into open conflict. Ongoing diplomatic channels between Washington and Beijing, including recent leader-level contacts, further reduce near-term escalation risks. A decisive shift would require verifiable signs of imminent mobilization that have not materialized in the past several months.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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