President Trump has repeatedly called for Republicans to “nationalize” elections since early 2026 and issued a March executive order directing federal agencies to compile citizenship lists, restrict mail ballots via the Postal Service, and require states to share voter data. These steps encountered immediate constitutional and legal obstacles. The Constitution assigns primary authority over election administration to the states, with Congress holding limited override power. In September, the Supreme Court blocked the mail-ballot provisions, and lower courts had already issued adverse rulings. Ongoing Justice Department demands for voter rolls have produced mixed compliance and further litigation. Traders therefore assign a high probability that a full federal takeover will not occur before the midterms.