Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.9% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by authoritative U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible on Earth. The largest recorded quake remains the 9.5-magnitude Valdivia event in Chile in 1960, limited by maximum fault rupture lengths—typically under 1,000 km—far short of the global-scale fault exceeding 14,000 km needed for magnitude 10.0 on the moment magnitude scale. Global seismic networks show no precursors for unprecedented ruptures, with recent activity (e.g., no magnitude 9+ since 2011) reinforcing baseline rarity. Realistic shifts would require discovery of an unknown planet-circling fault or seismic measurement revision, both deemed implausible by experts; continuous USGS monitoring provides the next data updates.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$555,216 거래량
$555,216 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$555,216 거래량
$555,216 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.9% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by authoritative U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible on Earth. The largest recorded quake remains the 9.5-magnitude Valdivia event in Chile in 1960, limited by maximum fault rupture lengths—typically under 1,000 km—far short of the global-scale fault exceeding 14,000 km needed for magnitude 10.0 on the moment magnitude scale. Global seismic networks show no precursors for unprecedented ruptures, with recent activity (e.g., no magnitude 9+ since 2011) reinforcing baseline rarity. Realistic shifts would require discovery of an unknown planet-circling fault or seismic measurement revision, both deemed implausible by experts; continuous USGS monitoring provides the next data updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
마켓 개설일: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
거래량
$555,216종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.9% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by authoritative U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible on Earth. The largest recorded quake remains the 9.5-magnitude Valdivia event in Chile in 1960, limited by maximum fault rupture lengths—typically under 1,000 km—far short of the global-scale fault exceeding 14,000 km needed for magnitude 10.0 on the moment magnitude scale. Global seismic networks show no precursors for unprecedented ruptures, with recent activity (e.g., no magnitude 9+ since 2011) reinforcing baseline rarity. Realistic shifts would require discovery of an unknown planet-circling fault or seismic measurement revision, both deemed implausible by experts; continuous USGS monitoring provides the next data updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
거래량
$555,216종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.9% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by authoritative U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible on Earth. The largest recorded quake remains the 9.5-magnitude Valdivia event in Chile in 1960, limited by maximum fault rupture lengths—typically under 1,000 km—far short of the global-scale fault exceeding 14,000 km needed for magnitude 10.0 on the moment magnitude scale. Global seismic networks show no precursors for unprecedented ruptures, with recent activity (e.g., no magnitude 9+ since 2011) reinforcing baseline rarity. Realistic shifts would require discovery of an unknown planet-circling fault or seismic measurement revision, both deemed implausible by experts; continuous USGS monitoring provides the next data updates.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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