Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming scientific evidence from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible, as they would require fault ruptures exceeding Earth's crustal dimensions—far beyond the longest observed megathrust zones. The largest instrumentally recorded event remains the 1960 Mw 9.5 Valdivia quake in Chile, with no Mw 9.5+ events since and 2026's largest at around Mw 7.4 off Indonesia. Moment magnitude scales logarithmically with rupture area and slip, capping realistic maxima near Mw 9.6 on subduction interfaces. While unforeseen measurement revisions or extreme slip could theoretically challenge this, USGS models show no precursors or stress accumulation for such an event before 2027; ongoing global seismic monitoring via USGS networks reinforces the near-certainty.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$555,228 거래량
$555,228 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$555,228 거래량
$555,228 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming scientific evidence from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible, as they would require fault ruptures exceeding Earth's crustal dimensions—far beyond the longest observed megathrust zones. The largest instrumentally recorded event remains the 1960 Mw 9.5 Valdivia quake in Chile, with no Mw 9.5+ events since and 2026's largest at around Mw 7.4 off Indonesia. Moment magnitude scales logarithmically with rupture area and slip, capping realistic maxima near Mw 9.6 on subduction interfaces. While unforeseen measurement revisions or extreme slip could theoretically challenge this, USGS models show no precursors or stress accumulation for such an event before 2027; ongoing global seismic monitoring via USGS networks reinforces the near-certainty.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
마켓 개설일: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
거래량
$555,228종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming scientific evidence from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible, as they would require fault ruptures exceeding Earth's crustal dimensions—far beyond the longest observed megathrust zones. The largest instrumentally recorded event remains the 1960 Mw 9.5 Valdivia quake in Chile, with no Mw 9.5+ events since and 2026's largest at around Mw 7.4 off Indonesia. Moment magnitude scales logarithmically with rupture area and slip, capping realistic maxima near Mw 9.6 on subduction interfaces. While unforeseen measurement revisions or extreme slip could theoretically challenge this, USGS models show no precursors or stress accumulation for such an event before 2027; ongoing global seismic monitoring via USGS networks reinforces the near-certainty.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
거래량
$555,228종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming scientific evidence from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible, as they would require fault ruptures exceeding Earth's crustal dimensions—far beyond the longest observed megathrust zones. The largest instrumentally recorded event remains the 1960 Mw 9.5 Valdivia quake in Chile, with no Mw 9.5+ events since and 2026's largest at around Mw 7.4 off Indonesia. Moment magnitude scales logarithmically with rupture area and slip, capping realistic maxima near Mw 9.6 on subduction interfaces. While unforeseen measurement revisions or extreme slip could theoretically challenge this, USGS models show no precursors or stress accumulation for such an event before 2027; ongoing global seismic monitoring via USGS networks reinforces the near-certainty.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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