Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 shows global surface air temperature anomalies tracking above the 2023 benchmark for third-warmest April on record but below the 2024 record and 2025 runner-up, driving trader consensus to 67% implied probability for third place. La Niña conditions persisting from late 2025 into early 2026 have suppressed anomalies by 0.1–0.2°C compared to prior El Niño peaks, with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center now favoring ENSO-neutral through June (80% chance) before potential El Niño emergence. Recent ERA5 updates as of April 13 confirm +1.51°C above the 1991–2020 baseline, solidifying the narrow path to third amid thin liquidity. Final half-month observations and May bulletins from Copernicus and NOAA will clarify resolution against NASA GISTEMP rankings.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2026 년 4 월 1 일, 2 일, 3 일 기록상 가장 뜨거운?
2026 년 4 월 1 일, 2 일, 3 일 기록상 가장 뜨거운?
세 번째로 더운 67%
두 번째로 더움 16%
4위 또는 그 이하 10%
사상 최고 3.6%
$71,259 거래량
$71,259 거래량
2026.05.10
사상 최고
4%
두 번째로 더움
16%
세 번째로 더운
67%
4위 또는 그 이하
10%
세 번째로 더운 67%
두 번째로 더움 16%
4위 또는 그 이하 10%
사상 최고 3.6%
$71,259 거래량
$71,259 거래량
2026.05.10
사상 최고
$7,377 거래량
4%
두 번째로 더움
$21,077 거래량
16%
세 번째로 더운
$14,459 거래량
67%
4위 또는 그 이하
$28,346 거래량
10%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 shows global surface air temperature anomalies tracking above the 2023 benchmark for third-warmest April on record but below the 2024 record and 2025 runner-up, driving trader consensus to 67% implied probability for third place. La Niña conditions persisting from late 2025 into early 2026 have suppressed anomalies by 0.1–0.2°C compared to prior El Niño peaks, with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center now favoring ENSO-neutral through June (80% chance) before potential El Niño emergence. Recent ERA5 updates as of April 13 confirm +1.51°C above the 1991–2020 baseline, solidifying the narrow path to third amid thin liquidity. Final half-month observations and May bulletins from Copernicus and NOAA will clarify resolution against NASA GISTEMP rankings.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
마켓 개설일: Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
거래량
$71,259종료일
2026.05.10마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 shows global surface air temperature anomalies tracking above the 2023 benchmark for third-warmest April on record but below the 2024 record and 2025 runner-up, driving trader consensus to 67% implied probability for third place. La Niña conditions persisting from late 2025 into early 2026 have suppressed anomalies by 0.1–0.2°C compared to prior El Niño peaks, with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center now favoring ENSO-neutral through June (80% chance) before potential El Niño emergence. Recent ERA5 updates as of April 13 confirm +1.51°C above the 1991–2020 baseline, solidifying the narrow path to third amid thin liquidity. Final half-month observations and May bulletins from Copernicus and NOAA will clarify resolution against NASA GISTEMP rankings.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
거래량
$71,259종료일
2026.05.10마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 shows global surface air temperature anomalies tracking above the 2023 benchmark for third-warmest April on record but below the 2024 record and 2025 runner-up, driving trader consensus to 67% implied probability for third place. La Niña conditions persisting from late 2025 into early 2026 have suppressed anomalies by 0.1–0.2°C compared to prior El Niño peaks, with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center now favoring ENSO-neutral through June (80% chance) before potential El Niño emergence. Recent ERA5 updates as of April 13 confirm +1.51°C above the 1991–2020 baseline, solidifying the narrow path to third amid thin liquidity. Final half-month observations and May bulletins from Copernicus and NOAA will clarify resolution against NASA GISTEMP rankings.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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