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2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

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2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

5월 10

5월 10

3rd hottest 66%

2nd hottest 18%

4th or lower 11%

1st hottest 4.9%

Polymarket

$70,543 거래량

3rd hottest 66%

2nd hottest 18%

4th or lower 11%

1st hottest 4.9%

Polymarket

$70,543 거래량

1st hottest

$7,350 거래량

5%

2nd hottest

$21,052 거래량

18%

3rd hottest

$14,434 거래량

66%

4th or lower

$27,708 거래량

13%

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary NOAA and Copernicus data through April 11 position April 2026 as the third-warmest April on record for global surface air temperature, trailing the records set in 2024 (hottest) and 2025 (second-hottest) but surpassing all prior months, driving the market-implied 67.5% probability for this outcome and trader consensus on its trajectory. ENSO-neutral conditions, favored through April-June at 80% per NOAA Climate Prediction Center's April 9 update, limit upside potential for extreme heat compared to recent El Niño-boosted Aprils, while persistent high sea surface temperatures from March add baseline warmth. Recent Copernicus March bulletin (April 10) highlighted fourth-warmest March rankings amid near-record ocean heat; ECMWF April seasonal forecasts predict continued above-average anomalies without breaching top-two thresholds. Uncertainty remains for the month's second half, with final rankings from agency reports expected early May.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.

Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
거래량
$70,543
종료일
2026.05.10
마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary NOAA and Copernicus data through April 11 position April 2026 as the third-warmest April on record for global surface air temperature, trailing the records set in 2024 (hottest) and 2025 (second-hottest) but surpassing all prior months, driving the market-implied 67.5% probability for this outcome and trader consensus on its trajectory. ENSO-neutral conditions, favored through April-June at 80% per NOAA Climate Prediction Center's April 9 update, limit upside potential for extreme heat compared to recent El Niño-boosted Aprils, while persistent high sea surface temperatures from March add baseline warmth. Recent Copernicus March bulletin (April 10) highlighted fourth-warmest March rankings amid near-record ocean heat; ECMWF April seasonal forecasts predict continued above-average anomalies without breaching top-two thresholds. Uncertainty remains for the month's second half, with final rankings from agency reports expected early May.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.

Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
거래량
$70,543
종료일
2026.05.10
마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

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자주 묻는 질문

"2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?"은 4개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 66%의 "3rd hottest"이며, 이어서 18%의 "2nd hottest"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 66¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 66%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

오늘 현재 "2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?"은 총 $70.5K의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Mar 24, 2026에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.

"2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 4개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

"2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?"의 현재 유력 후보는 66%의 "3rd hottest"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 66%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 18%의 "2nd hottest"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.

"2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.