Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.8% implied probability to a Bank of Russia key rate decrease at the April 24, 2026 meeting, driven by the central bank's seventh consecutive 50 basis point cut to 15% on March 20 amid stable March CPI inflation at 5.9% year-over-year—unchanged from February and below prior peaks—coupled with projections for 4.5-5.5% inflation this year. This easing cycle reflects receding price pressures despite elevated household expectations near 13.4%, with analysts now forecasting an average 2026 key rate of 14.1%. Realistic challenges include an April CPI upside surprise or intensified geopolitical tensions, potentially prompting a no-change stance to anchor inflation risks.