Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 76% probability of zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19, reflecting the absence of any such events through April 16 according to USGS monitoring via the Advanced National Seismic System. This positioning aligns with historical global baselines, where M6.5+ quakes average roughly 50-70 annually—about one every 5-7 days but with high variance and frequent null weeks due to the unpredictable nature of tectonic stress release along fault lines. No active aftershock sequences from early April's M7.4 Indonesia event or recent M5.7s in Nevada and off Costa Rica signal elevated risk for escalation. USGS real-time catalogs will determine resolution, with odds poised to shift rapidly if seismic activity surges in the remaining three days.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트4월 13일부터 19일까지 6.5 이상의 지진은 몇 건입니까?
4월 13일부터 19일까지 6.5 이상의 지진은 몇 건입니까?
0 74%
1 19%
2 6%
3 1.4%
$43,106 거래량
$43,106 거래량
2026.04.19
0
74%
1
19%
2
6%
3
1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
>5
1%
0 74%
1 19%
2 6%
3 1.4%
$43,106 거래량
$43,106 거래량
2026.04.19
0
$13,386 거래량
74%
1
$8,675 거래량
19%
2
$5,607 거래량
6%
3
$2,849 거래량
1%
4
$7,232 거래량
<1%
5
$2,292 거래량
<1%
>5
$3,069 거래량
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 76% probability of zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19, reflecting the absence of any such events through April 16 according to USGS monitoring via the Advanced National Seismic System. This positioning aligns with historical global baselines, where M6.5+ quakes average roughly 50-70 annually—about one every 5-7 days but with high variance and frequent null weeks due to the unpredictable nature of tectonic stress release along fault lines. No active aftershock sequences from early April's M7.4 Indonesia event or recent M5.7s in Nevada and off Costa Rica signal elevated risk for escalation. USGS real-time catalogs will determine resolution, with odds poised to shift rapidly if seismic activity surges in the remaining three days.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
마켓 개설일: Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
거래량
$43,106종료일
2026.04.19마켓 개설일
Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 76% probability of zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19, reflecting the absence of any such events through April 16 according to USGS monitoring via the Advanced National Seismic System. This positioning aligns with historical global baselines, where M6.5+ quakes average roughly 50-70 annually—about one every 5-7 days but with high variance and frequent null weeks due to the unpredictable nature of tectonic stress release along fault lines. No active aftershock sequences from early April's M7.4 Indonesia event or recent M5.7s in Nevada and off Costa Rica signal elevated risk for escalation. USGS real-time catalogs will determine resolution, with odds poised to shift rapidly if seismic activity surges in the remaining three days.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
거래량
$43,106종료일
2026.04.19마켓 개설일
Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 76% probability of zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19, reflecting the absence of any such events through April 16 according to USGS monitoring via the Advanced National Seismic System. This positioning aligns with historical global baselines, where M6.5+ quakes average roughly 50-70 annually—about one every 5-7 days but with high variance and frequent null weeks due to the unpredictable nature of tectonic stress release along fault lines. No active aftershock sequences from early April's M7.4 Indonesia event or recent M5.7s in Nevada and off Costa Rica signal elevated risk for escalation. USGS real-time catalogs will determine resolution, with odds poised to shift rapidly if seismic activity surges in the remaining three days.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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