Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19 at 66.5% implied probability, driven by USGS data confirming none through April 16 amid subdued global seismicity. The most recent qualifying event was a M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1, followed by a quiet period with no M6+ activity in the intervening days, aligning with long-term averages of roughly 0.3-0.5 such events per week per USGS catalogs under the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation. Absent swarms, aftershocks, or fault-specific stress indicators, the Poisson-distributed nature of seismicity supports low odds for multiples, though traders price a 24.5% chance of one late-week event; monitor USGS real-time feeds for updates through April 19 resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트4월 13일부터 19일까지 6.5 이상의 지진은 몇 건입니까?
4월 13일부터 19일까지 6.5 이상의 지진은 몇 건입니까?
0 66%
1 24%
2 6%
3 1.5%
$35,667 거래량
$35,667 거래량
2026.04.19
0
64%
1
24%
2
6%
3
2%
4
<1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
0 66%
1 24%
2 6%
3 1.5%
$35,667 거래량
$35,667 거래량
2026.04.19
0
$11,285 거래량
64%
1
$7,288 거래량
24%
2
$3,840 거래량
6%
3
$1,865 거래량
2%
4
$6,627 거래량
<1%
5
$2,230 거래량
<1%
>5
$3,007 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19 at 66.5% implied probability, driven by USGS data confirming none through April 16 amid subdued global seismicity. The most recent qualifying event was a M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1, followed by a quiet period with no M6+ activity in the intervening days, aligning with long-term averages of roughly 0.3-0.5 such events per week per USGS catalogs under the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation. Absent swarms, aftershocks, or fault-specific stress indicators, the Poisson-distributed nature of seismicity supports low odds for multiples, though traders price a 24.5% chance of one late-week event; monitor USGS real-time feeds for updates through April 19 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
마켓 개설일: Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
거래량
$35,667종료일
2026.04.19마켓 개설일
Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19 at 66.5% implied probability, driven by USGS data confirming none through April 16 amid subdued global seismicity. The most recent qualifying event was a M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1, followed by a quiet period with no M6+ activity in the intervening days, aligning with long-term averages of roughly 0.3-0.5 such events per week per USGS catalogs under the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation. Absent swarms, aftershocks, or fault-specific stress indicators, the Poisson-distributed nature of seismicity supports low odds for multiples, though traders price a 24.5% chance of one late-week event; monitor USGS real-time feeds for updates through April 19 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
거래량
$35,667종료일
2026.04.19마켓 개설일
Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19 at 66.5% implied probability, driven by USGS data confirming none through April 16 amid subdued global seismicity. The most recent qualifying event was a M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1, followed by a quiet period with no M6+ activity in the intervening days, aligning with long-term averages of roughly 0.3-0.5 such events per week per USGS catalogs under the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation. Absent swarms, aftershocks, or fault-specific stress indicators, the Poisson-distributed nature of seismicity supports low odds for multiples, though traders price a 24.5% chance of one late-week event; monitor USGS real-time feeds for updates through April 19 resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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