A fragile ceasefire announced around April 8 has largely held in the US-Israel-Iran conflict sparked by Operation Epic Fury airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear targets starting February 28, suppressing Tehran's missile capabilities and prompting a naval blockade of its ports. However, Israel's continued airstrikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon—viewed by Iran as a ceasefire violation—have elicited threats of "crushing retaliation" from Iranian officials, with IRGC sources indicating plans for a potential deterrent operation against Israel. No direct Iranian drone, missile, or air strikes on Israeli soil have materialized since the truce, but diplomatic tensions persist amid US warnings and stalled peace talks deemed "unreasonable" by Tehran, leaving room for escalation before the April 30 resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$3,978,581 거래량
2026.04.30
이라크
100%
바레인
55%
카타르
24%
오만
7%
요르단
6%
키프로스
4%
레바논
4%
시리아
4%
아제르바이잔
4%
터키
3%
아프가니스탄
3%
파키스탄
2%
우크라이나
2%
예멘
2%
폴란드
2%
아르메니아
1%
영국
1%
이탈리아
1%
조지아
1%
인도
1%
독일
1%
프랑스
1%
스페인
1%
헝가리
1%
$3,978,581 거래량
이라크
$1,979,132 거래량
100%
바레인
$69,766 거래량
55%
카타르
$79,171 거래량
24%
오만
$62,717 거래량
7%
요르단
$11,819 거래량
6%
키프로스
$18,139 거래량
4%
레바논
$42,073 거래량
4%
시리아
$12,367 거래량
4%
아제르바이잔
$37,978 거래량
4%
터키
$18,602 거래량
3%
아프가니스탄
$1,724 거래량
3%
파키스탄
$13,586 거래량
2%
우크라이나
$14,538 거래량
2%
예멘
$8,378 거래량
2%
폴란드
$35,833 거래량
2%
아르메니아
$3,308 거래량
1%
영국
$25,110 거래량
1%
이탈리아
$1,353 거래량
1%
조지아
$7,269 거래량
1%
인도
$17,625 거래량
1%
독일
$17,973 거래량
1%
프랑스
$31,222 거래량
1%
스페인
$6,902 거래량
1%
헝가리
$14,578 거래량
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile ceasefire announced around April 8 has largely held in the US-Israel-Iran conflict sparked by Operation Epic Fury airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear targets starting February 28, suppressing Tehran's missile capabilities and prompting a naval blockade of its ports. However, Israel's continued airstrikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon—viewed by Iran as a ceasefire violation—have elicited threats of "crushing retaliation" from Iranian officials, with IRGC sources indicating plans for a potential deterrent operation against Israel. No direct Iranian drone, missile, or air strikes on Israeli soil have materialized since the truce, but diplomatic tensions persist amid US warnings and stalled peace talks deemed "unreasonable" by Tehran, leaving room for escalation before the April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
마켓 개설일: Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
거래량
$3,978,581종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...결과 제안됨: 예
이의 제기됨
결과 제안됨: 예
이의 제기됨
최종 검토
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile ceasefire announced around April 8 has largely held in the US-Israel-Iran conflict sparked by Operation Epic Fury airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear targets starting February 28, suppressing Tehran's missile capabilities and prompting a naval blockade of its ports. However, Israel's continued airstrikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon—viewed by Iran as a ceasefire violation—have elicited threats of "crushing retaliation" from Iranian officials, with IRGC sources indicating plans for a potential deterrent operation against Israel. No direct Iranian drone, missile, or air strikes on Israeli soil have materialized since the truce, but diplomatic tensions persist amid US warnings and stalled peace talks deemed "unreasonable" by Tehran, leaving room for escalation before the April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
거래량
$3,978,581종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...결과 제안됨: 예
이의 제기됨
결과 제안됨: 예
이의 제기됨
최종 검토
A fragile ceasefire announced around April 8 has largely held in the US-Israel-Iran conflict sparked by Operation Epic Fury airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear targets starting February 28, suppressing Tehran's missile capabilities and prompting a naval blockade of its ports. However, Israel's continued airstrikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon—viewed by Iran as a ceasefire violation—have elicited threats of "crushing retaliation" from Iranian officials, with IRGC sources indicating plans for a potential deterrent operation against Israel. No direct Iranian drone, missile, or air strikes on Israeli soil have materialized since the truce, but diplomatic tensions persist amid US warnings and stalled peace talks deemed "unreasonable" by Tehran, leaving room for escalation before the April 30 resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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