Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's official X account (@khamenei_ir) at 71% implied probability for April 10-17, reflecting its sparse activity since his February 28 assassination in US-Israeli airstrikes on Tehran. The bio now honors him as the "martyred Leader," with posts limited to archival statements—only one recorded on April 13 about Prophet Jesus (pbuh)—consistent with 1-2 posts every few days in March and early April amid Iran's ongoing conflict and succession uncertainty. No announcements signal increased frequency before the April 17, 12:00 PM ET resolution, though geopolitical escalations like retaliatory threats could prompt a final post, supporting 5-9 at 28.5% as the next likely range.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Khamenei # posts April 10 - April 17, 2026?
Khamenei # posts April 10 - April 17, 2026?
<5 71%
5-9 10%
15-19 7%
10-14 5.9%
신규
신규
2026.04.17
<5
71%
5-9
30%
10-14
20%
15-19
19%
20-24
6%
25-29
1%
30-34
3%
35-39
3%
40-44
2%
45-49
<1%
50-54
2%
55-59
<1%
60+
<1%
<5 71%
5-9 10%
15-19 7%
10-14 5.9%
신규
신규
2026.04.17
<5
$921 거래량
71%
5-9
$163 거래량
30%
10-14
$230 거래량
20%
15-19
$320 거래량
19%
20-24
$271 거래량
6%
25-29
$376 거래량
1%
30-34
$469 거래량
3%
35-39
$362 거래량
3%
40-44
$525 거래량
2%
45-49
$545 거래량
<1%
50-54
$795 거래량
2%
55-59
$648 거래량
<1%
60+
$1,135 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 10, 12:00 PM ET and April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's official X account (@khamenei_ir) at 71% implied probability for April 10-17, reflecting its sparse activity since his February 28 assassination in US-Israeli airstrikes on Tehran. The bio now honors him as the "martyred Leader," with posts limited to archival statements—only one recorded on April 13 about Prophet Jesus (pbuh)—consistent with 1-2 posts every few days in March and early April amid Iran's ongoing conflict and succession uncertainty. No announcements signal increased frequency before the April 17, 12:00 PM ET resolution, though geopolitical escalations like retaliatory threats could prompt a final post, supporting 5-9 at 28.5% as the next likely range.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 10, 12:00 PM ET and April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Apr 7, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
거래량
$6,758종료일
2026.04.17마켓 개설일
Apr 7, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 10, 12:00 PM ET and April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's official X account (@khamenei_ir) at 71% implied probability for April 10-17, reflecting its sparse activity since his February 28 assassination in US-Israeli airstrikes on Tehran. The bio now honors him as the "martyred Leader," with posts limited to archival statements—only one recorded on April 13 about Prophet Jesus (pbuh)—consistent with 1-2 posts every few days in March and early April amid Iran's ongoing conflict and succession uncertainty. No announcements signal increased frequency before the April 17, 12:00 PM ET resolution, though geopolitical escalations like retaliatory threats could prompt a final post, supporting 5-9 at 28.5% as the next likely range.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 10, 12:00 PM ET and April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
거래량
$6,758종료일
2026.04.17마켓 개설일
Apr 7, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's official X account (@khamenei_ir) at 71% implied probability for April 10-17, reflecting its sparse activity since his February 28 assassination in US-Israeli airstrikes on Tehran. The bio now honors him as the "martyred Leader," with posts limited to archival statements—only one recorded on April 13 about Prophet Jesus (pbuh)—consistent with 1-2 posts every few days in March and early April amid Iran's ongoing conflict and succession uncertainty. No announcements signal increased frequency before the April 17, 12:00 PM ET resolution, though geopolitical escalations like retaliatory threats could prompt a final post, supporting 5-9 at 28.5% as the next likely range.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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