Trader consensus on Polymarket leans toward "No" at 63% implied probability for a named storm forming before the Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of no tropical cyclones or disturbances with development potential in the next seven days, as routine Tropical Weather Outlook issuance resumes May 15. Unfavorable conditions prevail, including cooler-than-optimal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the main development region and persistent strong wind shear inhibiting low-pressure organization—hallmarks of April's climatology where pre-season activity is historically rare, with the average first named storm around June 20. Recent Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk April forecasts predict below-normal 2026 activity amid weak La Niña transitioning to neutral or El Niño phases, reinforcing subdued early prospects, though traders monitor for May model updates that could signal shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트허리케인 시즌이 오기 전에 폭풍으로 명명되었나요?
허리케인 시즌이 오기 전에 폭풍으로 명명되었나요?
예
$332,035 거래량
$332,035 거래량
2026.05.31
예
$332,035 거래량
$332,035 거래량
2026.05.31
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket leans toward "No" at 63% implied probability for a named storm forming before the Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of no tropical cyclones or disturbances with development potential in the next seven days, as routine Tropical Weather Outlook issuance resumes May 15. Unfavorable conditions prevail, including cooler-than-optimal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the main development region and persistent strong wind shear inhibiting low-pressure organization—hallmarks of April's climatology where pre-season activity is historically rare, with the average first named storm around June 20. Recent Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk April forecasts predict below-normal 2026 activity amid weak La Niña transitioning to neutral or El Niño phases, reinforcing subdued early prospects, though traders monitor for May model updates that could signal shifts.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
마켓 개설일: Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET
거래량
$332,035종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket leans toward "No" at 63% implied probability for a named storm forming before the Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of no tropical cyclones or disturbances with development potential in the next seven days, as routine Tropical Weather Outlook issuance resumes May 15. Unfavorable conditions prevail, including cooler-than-optimal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the main development region and persistent strong wind shear inhibiting low-pressure organization—hallmarks of April's climatology where pre-season activity is historically rare, with the average first named storm around June 20. Recent Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk April forecasts predict below-normal 2026 activity amid weak La Niña transitioning to neutral or El Niño phases, reinforcing subdued early prospects, though traders monitor for May model updates that could signal shifts.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
거래량
$332,035종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket leans toward "No" at 63% implied probability for a named storm forming before the Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of no tropical cyclones or disturbances with development potential in the next seven days, as routine Tropical Weather Outlook issuance resumes May 15. Unfavorable conditions prevail, including cooler-than-optimal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the main development region and persistent strong wind shear inhibiting low-pressure organization—hallmarks of April's climatology where pre-season activity is historically rare, with the average first named storm around June 20. Recent Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk April forecasts predict below-normal 2026 activity amid weak La Niña transitioning to neutral or El Niño phases, reinforcing subdued early prospects, though traders monitor for May model updates that could signal shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문